The Macro Trading Floor

Alf and Brent discuss the weak labor market data and the likely Fed reaction function. The duo also reflects on how you might be right on the macro idea, but market pricing at inception of your trade ...

8 Elo 202533min

Alf and Brent discuss the sharp USD repricing and the market positioning for a mild tariff impact on the US economy - what if we get a surprising slowdown over the next few months instead?

1 Elo 202532min

Alf and Brent discuss the recent clashes between the Trump administration and the Fed, the more friendly deal-making stance on tariff deals, and how to use options when trying to capture convex moves ...

25 Heinä 202537min

Alf and Brent discuss the crossroads ahead of us for the economy and markets: the USD selling seems to have lost steam, and tariffs' impact on the economy won't be easy to judge for months. So, what l...

18 Heinä 202536min

Alf and Brent discuss the recent soft CPI print and the state of the US labor market. They highlight the odds of a dovish Fed pivot, and what that might entail for markets. Transcript: https://www....

13 Kesä 202532min

Alf and Brent discuss recent market developments with a focus on the ''big beautiful bill'' that Republicans are trying to pass in the House and Senate. The initial estimate suggest new tax cuts would...

16 Touko 202522min

Alf and Brent discuss the reflexivity bias: now that the S&P500 is rallying again, investors are keen to talk about AI Capex driving indexes higher - where were they when we hit 4,800? Always be aware...

2 Touko 202536min

This week, Alf and Brent focus on an obscure yet crucial component of FX flows: the hedging needs from large institutional investors. These whales own $33+ trillion of USD-denominated assets, and over...

25 Huhti 202532min