EMD067 - OPEC+ Holds the Line

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, December 1, 2025 — Weekly Recap. We're back with our regular format after Friday's special edition on the Balkans. Yesterday, OPEC+ made its move. The cartel held production steady for Q1 2026, abandoning plans to increase output. Oil prices rallied over 1.5% on the news. But the bigger question remains: Is this enough to stop the bleeding? **THE OPEC+ DECISION** OPEC+ decided to maintain current oil output levels for the first quarter of 2026. The group was originally planning to increase output by approximately 137,000 barrels per day. That's off the table. The decision was influenced by fears of a looming market surplus and geopolitical uncertainties, including Russia-Ukraine peace talks and US-Venezuela tensions. Following the announcement, Brent crude futures climbed to $63.32 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $59.45 a barrel. OPEC+ also approved a mechanism to assess members' maximum production capacity between January and September 2026. This will be used as a reference for 2027 production baselines. The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting is scheduled for June 7, 2026. **THE WEEK IN CRUDE OIL** For the week of November 24-29, WTI crude oil increased by 0.63%, closing around $59.30. Brent recorded a fourth consecutive monthly decline in November amid fears of a supply glut. Trading Economics expects Brent to trade at $63.72 per barrel by the end of the current quarter. But some analysts expect a potential decline to below $53.35 per barrel. WTI at $59.30 is testing critical support. A break below $58 opens the door to $56. **THE WEEK IN NATURAL GAS** On November 29, the Henry Hub natural gas price dropped 10 cents to $4.45 per MMBtu. Natural gas is up 72% year-over-year, driven by increased LNG exports. The Henry Hub spot price is expected to average $4.00 per MMBtu in 2026. Natural gas is consolidating after a massive rally. The structural story remains bullish: LNG exports, data center demand, and electrification. Target: $5.00 by Q1 2026. **WHAT IT MEANS** The OPEC+ production freeze is a tactical retreat, not a strategic victory. WTI at $59.45 and Brent at $63.32 are short-term bounces. The bearish trend remains intact. Natural gas at $4.45 is consolidating. The decoupling thesis is playing out: Crude oil is oversupplied. Natural gas is structurally undersupplied. **CATALYST WATCH** Wednesday, December 4th: EIA Petroleum Status Report. Thursday, December 5th: Weekly natural gas storage report. Russia-Ukraine peace talks continue. Federal Reserve rate decision expected mid-December. **FINAL WORD** OPEC+ held the line. But the market isn't buying it. Crude oil is oversupplied. Natural gas is decoupling. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For inquiries or introductions to energy capital sources: energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. We'll see you Tuesday with Strategic Positioning.