Top Traders Unplugged6 Des 2025

SI377: What's New in SG Indices in 2026? + The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio ft. Alan Dunne

Niels and Alan explore how a fragile macro regime reshapes systematic investing, from a politicised Fed succession to widening cracks in a debt-laden, equity-dependent economy. A shifting bond landscape, rising capital demands from AI and renewed tariff risks challenge the old 60/40 orthodoxy. Listener questions on US policy shocks and the Yen carry trade open a deeper look at when trend helps and when it hurts. The episode culminates in a world exclusive of SocGen's 2026 index changes and the first public reveal of Alan’s new paper: The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio, for genuinely resilient, opportunity-aware global wealth compounding intelligently, prudently over the decade ahead.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Voiceover and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series

00:23 - Niels and Alan open, what is on their radar this week

01:27 - Fed succession as a political risk factor and betting markets

03:33 - Crypto moves, Vanguard’s platform shift and MicroStrategy index pressure

05:53 - Listener questions: can constant US policy shocks break trend?

06:33 - Trouble for trend or just another regime to endure and adapt to

08:55 - Short-term CTAs, Liberation Day and when speed becomes a handicap

11:11 - How CTAs are positioned for a yen carry unwind and JGB nuances

12:16 - November trend update, five straight positive months and short-term pain

13:35 - World exclusive: new SocGen CTA and Trend index line-ups and cutoffs

21:02 - Tariffs, AI capex, rising long rates and the changing bond landscape

29:28 - Is this really a 1990s-style productivity boom or something riskier?

33:52 - Why traditional versus alternative is the wrong lens for portfolios

38:30 - Inside Alan’s Adaptive Portfolio and the 40/40/20 risk framework

47:48 - Behavioural traps and the chronic under-allocation to true diversifiers

53:34 - Tail risks, fiscal dominance and what most portfolios are missing

56:59 - Adaptive versus 60/40: drawdowns, compounding and implications for retirees

01:01:42 - Implementation, return stacking and Morningstar’s leverage label problem

01:05:54 - Closing reflections, next week’s episode and final risk reminders

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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