Energy Markets Daily8 Des 2025

EMD072 - Strategic Positioning: Fed Week

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, December 8, 2025 — Strategic Positioning. New week, big catalysts ahead. Let's set the stage. **CRUDE OIL** WTI at $60.23, up 0.25%. Brent at $63.91, up 0.25%. Both near two-week highs. Geopolitics driving: Ukraine war, potential US-Venezuela intervention, Russian sanctions. But oversupply caps gains. OPEC November output at 28.40 million bpd. OPEC+ paused output hikes through Q1 2026. OPEC monthly report due December 11. Bearish case intact. Target: WTI $56, Brent $60. **NATURAL GAS** $5.12, down 3.24% on profit-taking. But up 18% past month, 61% year-over-year. Trading Economics sees $5.37 by quarter end, $6.59 in 12 months. Morgan Stanley reiterates $5 target for 2026. LNG exports climbing from 13 to 17 Bcf/d by year end. Structural bull case intact. Target: $5.50 Q1 2026. **FED WATCH** FOMC meets tomorrow Dec 9-10. 87% odds of 25bp rate cut. Rate cuts stimulate growth and energy demand. But inflation concerns remain. **THE WEEK AHEAD** Tuesday-Wednesday: FOMC decision. Wednesday: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook. Thursday: OPEC Monthly Report. Friday: Weekly recap. **THE DECOUPLING** Crude oversupplied, bearish. Natural gas structurally tight, bullish. Trade the decoupling. For inquiries: energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday: Fed Decision Day.

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Episoder(218)

Geopolitical Tensions Rising

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8 Jul 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Ecuador

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3 Jul 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Belarus

Thursday, July 2, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: BELARUS. PRODUCTION OVERVIEW: Belarus produced ~25,000 bbl/d early 2026 (well below historical avg 33,650 bbl/d since 1993). Production reached 30-year hi...

2 Jul 2min

Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

Wednesday, July 1, 2026. WEEK 27 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil trading ~$69.98-$70.42. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). CRUDE OIL INVENTORY UPDATE...

1 Jul 3min

Technicals: Week 27

Tuesday, June 30, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $70. Recent closes ~$70.04-$70.42. Intraday range $69-$71 area. KEY LEVELS: Psychological support zone $70 (key round-number level). Imme...

30 Jun 2min

Doha Talks Resume

Monday, June 29, 2026. WEEK 27 OPENS. WTI crude oil opened at $70.50. Recent session range high $70.97, low $69.32. Prior close Jun 26 $69.23. Latest quotes ~$69.95-$70.21 (up slightly from Friday clo...

29 Jun 2min

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Friday, June 26, 2026. WEEK 26 COMPLETE. Twenty-six weeks running. The thesis delivers again. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened $74.82 (deal live, Hormuz open, geopolitical premium intact). Tuesday techn...

26 Jun 2min

Crude Breaks $70

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% pa...

25 Jun 2min