Energy Markets Daily12 Des 2025

EMD076 - Weekly Recap: Thesis Validated

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, December 12, 2025 — Weekly Recap. Let's close out the week. **THE BIG STORY** The Fed cut rates 25bp to 3.50%-3.75%. But Rystad says it won't move oil — fundamentals dominate. Supply growth and surplus outweigh monetary policy. **CRUDE OIL** WTI fell 2% to $57.30, near seven-week lows. Brent at $61.10. WTI down 1.27% monthly, down 17.52% year-over-year. Brent down 1.80% monthly, down 16.12% YoY. IEA still projects record surplus despite slight reduction. OPEC cut demand growth to 1.45M bpd — fifth straight downward revision. EIA projects first US production decline since 2020. Bearish thesis validated. Target: WTI $56, Brent $60. **NATURAL GAS** Volatile week. Fell 8% to $4.23 on Thursday on milder weather and record production at 109.7 Bcf/d. January NYMEX at $4.595. But EIA still sees winter average at $4.30. LNG exports at record highs. Structural bull case intact despite short-term pullback. Target: $5.50 Q1 2026. **THIS WEEK'S CATALYSTS** Fed cut rates. EIA STEO confirmed oversupply. OPEC cut demand forecasts. All three validate the decoupling. **NEXT WEEK** Monday strategic positioning. Watch for any geopolitical developments. **FINAL WORD** Crude sinks on oversupply. Gas pulls back but structure holds. Trade the decoupling. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For inquiries: energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Have a great weekend. We'll see you Monday.

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Episoder(259)

Geopolitical Premium Persists

Wednesday, September 9, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading near $93-$94/bbl testing $95 resistance. Sep 8 close Oct 2026 contract $93.50-$93.62 (+1.1-2.3% day), intraday highs $94.73, spot $92.36-$93...

9 Sep 2min

Technicals: Week 36

Tuesday, September 8, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS. WTI crude trading near $92 to $93 per barrel. Testing key resistance. Price action September 7 close around $90 to $92.29. Consolidating near $90 afte...

8 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Costa Rica

Friday, September 4, 2026. COSTA RICA ENERGY PROFILE. OIL AND NATURAL GAS: Costa Rica reports no proven oil reserves, produces only ~400 b/d petroleum liquids (unchanged YoY 2025; zero crude/NGPL). Oi...

4 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Yemen

Thursday, September 3, 2026. YEMEN OIL AND GAS PROFILE. RESERVES: Oil reserves consistently estimated at ~3 billion barrels (Masila, Marib/Sab'atayn, Shabwa basins), stable since ~2009, ranking ~27th ...

3 Sep 2min

Middle East Tensions

Wednesday, September 2, 2026. CRUDE OIL SPIKE. September 2, 2026: Closed at approximately $89.39 USD per barrel. Open: approximately $89.24. High: approximately $89.61. Low: approximately $89.22. Chan...

2 Sep 2min

Technicals: Week 35

Tuesday, September 1, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: Price context ~$84.90-$86.29 recently (e.g., 85.63 one platform), intraday ranges 84.13-86.78. RSI14 ~54.9-58 neutral-to-buy signal; some 57-62 shorte...

1 Sep 2min

Strategic Positioning: Week 35

Monday, August 31, 2026. WEEK 35 OPENS. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: August 28, 2026 $83.40 (open ~$83.67, high ~$83.78, low ~$82.25; volume ~142K). August 29, 2026 No trading data available (weekend/non-trading...

31 Aug 2min

Geographic Feature: Oman

Friday, August 28, 2026. OMAN ENERGY PROFILE: Oman's oil and natural gas production showed notable growth in first half of 2026, driven by higher output, stable exports, and project developments. OIL ...

28 Aug 2min