Predictions and Reckonings: From 2025 to 2026

Predictions and Reckonings: From 2025 to 2026

This week Mark Leonard is joined by Jeremy Shapiro, research director at ECFR, for their annual end-of-year tradition: marking last year’s predictions and making ten bold forecasts for the year ahead. They look at how their 2025 calls stacked up—from Trump to German politics to Ukraine, China and migration—before turning their attention to 2026.

Will the European far right continue its advance? Is an uneasy ceasefire in Ukraine finally within reach? How might US policy on Iran, China and Europe evolve under Trump? And what role will AI, energy security and debt crises play in shaping the year to come?

This podcast was recorded on December 30th 2025.

Bookshelf

The Dream Factory: London’s First Playhouse and the Making of William Shakespeare by Daniel Swift

Ones and Tooze by Adam Tooze

Wer verteidigt Europa?: Die neuen Kriegsgefahren und was wir tun müssen, um uns zu schützen by Jana Puglierin

Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics when the rules fail by Mark Leonard (April 2026)

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Episoder(651)

Can a Ceasefire Survive Israel’s Election?

Can a Ceasefire Survive Israel’s Election?

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow at ECFR, to unpack a turbulent summer in Israel and the Palestinian territories. While Palestinian factions in Gaza have agreed i...

28 Aug 28min

Germany’s second China shock

Germany’s second China shock

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Janka Oertel, director of ECFR’s DARE* initiative, and Andrew Small, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, to examine the growing impact of the “China shock 2.0” on Germa...

21 Aug 35min

Political crisis in Germany

Political crisis in Germany

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Jörg Lau, international correspondent at Die Zeit and Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR’s Berlin office, to explore the political turmoil in Germany ahead of an elector...

14 Aug 30min

Latin America’s new imaginaries

Latin America’s new imaginaries

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Adriana Abdenur, a Brazilian policy expert and co-president of the Global Fund for a New Economy, and Jorge Castañeda, former foreign minister of Mexico and profes...

7 Aug 34min

Defining Modernity in South-East Asia

Defining Modernity in South-East Asia

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by LuHan Gabel, associate director of the Ideas Workshop at the Open Society Foundations; Ooi Kee Beng, political historian and executive director of the Penang Insti...

31 Jul 39min

The China-native generation

The China-native generation

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Loubna El Amine, lecturer in political theory at King’s College London and affiliate of the Lau China Institute, and Cobus van Staden, head of research at the Chin...

24 Jul 39min

European defence after the NATO summit

European defence after the NATO summit

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, secretary general of ASD Europe and special adviser to ECFR’s European Security programme, and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, deputy head of ECFR’s Warsaw of...

17 Jul 37min

Marine Le Pen’s comeback

Marine Le Pen’s comeback

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office and senior policy fellow, and Jeremy Cliffe, ECFR’s editorial director and senior policy fellow, to discuss Marine Le Pen’s de...

9 Jul 31min

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