210. Our Predictions for 2026

210. Our Predictions for 2026

Happy New Year energy nerds

As tradition demands (and lawyers insist), the first episode of the year is the annual ritual where Gerard, Laurent, and Michael boldly predict the future of the energy transition… and then publicly roast themselves for last year’s bad calls.

Before unleashing our 2026 Predictions, we do a mandatory rewind to the crystal-ball disasters of 2025: The 2025 prophecy graveyard:
  1. US oil production down in 2025 (MB — bold, brave… wrong)
  2. Oil at $40/bbl in 2025 (GR — oof)
  3. Geopolitics + broken supply chains + energy chaos = a better, more innovative world (LS — still hoping)
  4. A bloodbath for hydrogen in transportation (MB — disturbingly accurate)
  5. Record installs: Solar 700GW, EVs 20m, Batteries 200GWh (spot on)
  6. The death of all things labelled ESG, Climate, and Carbon (LS — prematurely optimistic)
Scorecard: Gerard absolutely nailed Silver: from $30/oz to $60/oz in 18 months. BP technically survived 2025… but welcomed a new CEO, so partial credit at best.

Michael wins overall, which he will remind us of repeatedly. After heroic levels of co-host sabotage, Laurent loses again, as is now canon.
Our 2026 Predictions:
🔥 China battery systems at $40/kWh, full-system LFP (MB)
🔥 Half of all announced datacenters will never be built — welcome to the credit + grid crisis (LS)
🔥 Wind and solar installs DOWN in 2026 vs 2025 (GR — spicy)
🔥 20GW of solar in Africa in 2026 (MB)
🔥 The GhG Protocol revision fight gets ugly, personal, and possibly litigious (LS)
🔥 LNG glut creates stranded assets everywhere: flat demand, too much supply, tears on spreadsheets (GR)

And yes, plenty more hot takes, bruised egos, and inconvenient truths to kick off the year the right way.

🎙️ Welcome to 2026. Let’s redefine energy.

Episoder(185)

52. The German "Energiewende" - jun21

52. The German "Energiewende" - jun21

Germany is rightly portrayed as a pioneer in the development of wind and solar. For the past two decades, the German government has granted a) a very stable framework b) very generous terms to renewab...

15 Jun 202131min

51. Is there a future for coal in Asia? - jun21

51. Is there a future for coal in Asia? - jun21

While coal is being phased out in Europe and America, it is still the dominant source of energy in Asia. Why is that? And how will the situation evolve? Is there any teeth behind the net zero pledges ...

1 Jun 202131min

50. Redefining Utilities' strategies in the Electric Decade  (with E.ON at Eurelectric Power Summit 21) - may21

50. Redefining Utilities' strategies in the Electric Decade (with E.ON at Eurelectric Power Summit 21) - may21

“Sorry, I’m getting emotional when it comes to smart meters”. Part of Eurelectric’ s Power Summit 2021, we have had a great conversation with Dr Leonhard Birnbaum, the new CEO of E.ON. E.ON is a massi...

15 Mai 202129min

49. The stratospheric rise of Octopus Energy - may21

49. The stratospheric rise of Octopus Energy - may21

The energy retail sector is also experiencing its version of the energy transition, where incumbents with legacy systems are challenged by new entrants rolling out ground-breaking digital platforms.Be...

1 Mai 202130min

48. Solar & batteries: can China’s dominance be challenged? - apr21

48. Solar & batteries: can China’s dominance be challenged? - apr21

China manufactures 2/3 of the world’s solar panels and 2/3 of the world’s batteries. How does it look on the ground? What technological advances do Chinese companies have and what does it means for th...

15 Apr 202126min

47. Batteries, a new Asset Class in Infrastructure Investing - apr21

47. Batteries, a new Asset Class in Infrastructure Investing - apr21

In Episode 47, we dive into the exponential development of batteries into the Grid: the Energy Storage industry is doubling size every year. One of the key market is the UK, where the market is expect...

1 Apr 202127min

46. Flexible, resilient, sustainable: the making of the XXIst Century Supergrid - mar21

46. Flexible, resilient, sustainable: the making of the XXIst Century Supergrid - mar21

After several black outs in the past months, the irresistible growing trend towards electrification and the relentless rise of renewables, the grid has become the indispensable nervous system of the e...

15 Mar 202127min

45. The Green Industrial Revolution - mar21

45. The Green Industrial Revolution - mar21

The UK Green Industrial Revolution was introduced by Boris Johnson, UK Prime Minister, in 2020. It is a holistic approach to decarbonisation, but we wanted to focus on one of its key aspects: the deve...

1 Mar 202125min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

stopp-verden
lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
dine-penger-pengeradet
e24-podden
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
pengepodden-2
utbytte
finansredaksjonen
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
pengesnakk
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
rss-politisk-preik
liberal-halvtime
lederpodden
stormkast-med-valebrokk-stordalen
rss-sunn-okonomi
rss-markedspuls-2
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
lederskap-nhhs-podkast-om-ledelse