EMD094 - Market Update: Oversupply Locked In

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, January 7, 2026 — Market Update. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI at $57.13, down 0.2%. Brent at $60.53, down 0.3%. Soft trading amid oversupply fears. OPEC+ locked in Q1 output freeze—1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts hold through Feb/March. Exactly as predicted. IEA surplus at 3.8 million bpd for 2026. Non-OPEC supply growth from US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana relentless. OPEC+ trapped—no room to ramp without price collapse. **NAT GAS:** Henry Hub $2.86-$3.44 range. Down 5% weekly on warm Jan 7-11 forecast across eastern/southern US—crushing heating demand. EIA storage draw -38 Bcf last week (vs -51 consensus). Inventories 1.7% above 5-year average. But LNG exports hit record 19.9 Bcf/d. Production near 110 Bcf/d. Short-term bearish weather play, structural bullish—EIA holds $4.00/MMBtu 2026 average. Dallas Fed $4.19 year-end. **CATALYST WATCH:** EIA Weekly Petroleum Jan 8. Mid-Jan Northeast/Midwest storm potential. Late Jan cold snap watch. China data flows. OPEC+ compliance. **THE BOTTOM LINE:** Crude oversupplied, OPEC stuck. Gas dips on weather—prime buying opp for LNG thesis. Trade the decoupling. Data over headlines. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project or deal needs capital? We connect to institutional/family office networks. energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Thursday: Strategic Positioning.

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Episoder(218)

Geopolitical Tensions Rising

Wednesday, January 8, 2026. WEEK 2 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil settled at $57.76, up $1.77 or 3.2%. Sharp rebound after two consecutive days of declines. Two-week high. Brent up 3.4% to $61.99. KEY ...

8 Jul 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Ecuador

Friday, July 3, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: ECUADOR. CURRENT PRODUCTION LEVELS: Ecuador's crude oil production averaged ~461,000-466,000 bbl/d Jan-Feb 2026. Daily lifts reported ~452,817-458,207 bbl/d...

3 Jul 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Belarus

Thursday, July 2, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: BELARUS. PRODUCTION OVERVIEW: Belarus produced ~25,000 bbl/d early 2026 (well below historical avg 33,650 bbl/d since 1993). Production reached 30-year hi...

2 Jul 2min

Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

Wednesday, July 1, 2026. WEEK 27 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil trading ~$69.98-$70.42. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). CRUDE OIL INVENTORY UPDATE...

1 Jul 3min

Technicals: Week 27

Tuesday, June 30, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $70. Recent closes ~$70.04-$70.42. Intraday range $69-$71 area. KEY LEVELS: Psychological support zone $70 (key round-number level). Imme...

30 Jun 2min

Doha Talks Resume

Monday, June 29, 2026. WEEK 27 OPENS. WTI crude oil opened at $70.50. Recent session range high $70.97, low $69.32. Prior close Jun 26 $69.23. Latest quotes ~$69.95-$70.21 (up slightly from Friday clo...

29 Jun 2min

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Friday, June 26, 2026. WEEK 26 COMPLETE. Twenty-six weeks running. The thesis delivers again. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened $74.82 (deal live, Hormuz open, geopolitical premium intact). Tuesday techn...

26 Jun 2min

Crude Breaks $70

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% pa...

25 Jun 2min