EMD099 - Market Update: Geopolitical Spike

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, January 14, 2026 — Market Update. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI surged to $61.09, up 2.68%. Brent at $65.42, up 2.43%. Biggest daily pop in weeks. Geopolitical risk back in focus—US-Iran tensions and Venezuelan production slipping to 950,000 bpd from 1.1 million. OPEC+ Q1 freeze holds. Eight core members keeping output steady. IEA still projects 3.8 million bpd surplus for 2026. Non-OPEC supply relentless. EIA expects Brent to average $56 for the year. Rally is geopolitical, not fundamental. Surplus thesis intact. **NATURAL GAS:** Henry Hub holding $3.33. Colder forecasts for Jan 18-22 in eastern US, Jan 23-27 in Rockies and Midwest boosting sentiment. LNG flows to US terminals hit 20.4 bcf/d Monday. Total exports including Mexico at 24 bcf/d. Storage at 3,256 Bcf—123 bcf below last year but 31 bcf above 5-year average. Europe storage 55% full versus 70% seasonal average—bullish for US LNG demand. EIA $4.00 2026 average. **CATALYST WATCH:** Cold snap Jan 18-22. EIA petroleum delayed to Jan 22. IEA Oil Market Report Jan 21. **BOTTOM LINE:** Crude rallies on geopolitics but surplus looms. Gas cold forecasts support. Decoupling continues. Trade data over headlines. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project needs capital? energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Thursday: Strategic Positioning.

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Episoder(218)

Geopolitical Tensions Rising

Wednesday, January 8, 2026. WEEK 2 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil settled at $57.76, up $1.77 or 3.2%. Sharp rebound after two consecutive days of declines. Two-week high. Brent up 3.4% to $61.99. KEY ...

8 Jul 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Ecuador

Friday, July 3, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: ECUADOR. CURRENT PRODUCTION LEVELS: Ecuador's crude oil production averaged ~461,000-466,000 bbl/d Jan-Feb 2026. Daily lifts reported ~452,817-458,207 bbl/d...

3 Jul 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Belarus

Thursday, July 2, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: BELARUS. PRODUCTION OVERVIEW: Belarus produced ~25,000 bbl/d early 2026 (well below historical avg 33,650 bbl/d since 1993). Production reached 30-year hi...

2 Jul 2min

Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

Wednesday, July 1, 2026. WEEK 27 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil trading ~$69.98-$70.42. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). CRUDE OIL INVENTORY UPDATE...

1 Jul 3min

Technicals: Week 27

Tuesday, June 30, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $70. Recent closes ~$70.04-$70.42. Intraday range $69-$71 area. KEY LEVELS: Psychological support zone $70 (key round-number level). Imme...

30 Jun 2min

Doha Talks Resume

Monday, June 29, 2026. WEEK 27 OPENS. WTI crude oil opened at $70.50. Recent session range high $70.97, low $69.32. Prior close Jun 26 $69.23. Latest quotes ~$69.95-$70.21 (up slightly from Friday clo...

29 Jun 2min

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Friday, June 26, 2026. WEEK 26 COMPLETE. Twenty-six weeks running. The thesis delivers again. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened $74.82 (deal live, Hormuz open, geopolitical premium intact). Tuesday techn...

26 Jun 2min

Crude Breaks $70

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% pa...

25 Jun 2min