EMD100 - Strategic Positioning: Geopolitical Fade

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, January 15, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI pulled back to $61, down 2% after five-day rally. Brent at $65, also down 2%. Geopolitical premium fading—fears of imminent US strike on Iran easing. But the rally added 9% over four sessions. OPEC holds demand growth forecast at 1.38 million bpd for 2026, reaching 106.52 million bpd. IEA still divergent—expects only 860,000 bpd demand growth. IEA sees 4 million bpd surplus. Non-OPEC supply relentless—US output forecast 13.59 million bpd. EIA expects prices 19% below 2025 levels. Position: Geopolitical spikes are selling opportunities. Surplus thesis intact. **NATURAL GAS:** Henry Hub at $3.10, pulling back from $3.33 highs. Warm Jan 9-15 seventh warmest since 1950. But cold snap coming—frosty air hitting northern US late week into next weekend. Storage 3,256 Bcf, 31 Bcf above 5-year average. Europe storage 57-58% full. LNG exports strong at 24 bcf/d total including Mexico. Morgan Stanley $4.25 target for 2026. EIA revised lower to $3.50 avg but sees $4.60 in 2027 on LNG demand. 37 mtpa new liquefaction capacity coming online 2026. Position: Long gas. Weather volatility noise. LNG structure and Asia demand intact. **CATALYST WATCH:** IEA Oil Market Report Jan 21. EIA Petroleum Jan 22. Late Jan cold potential. **BOTTOM LINE:** Crude geopolitical fade—sell the spike. Gas pullback is entry. Decoupling continues. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project needs capital? energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Friday: Weekly Recap.

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Episoder(218)

Geopolitical Tensions Rising

Wednesday, January 8, 2026. WEEK 2 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil settled at $57.76, up $1.77 or 3.2%. Sharp rebound after two consecutive days of declines. Two-week high. Brent up 3.4% to $61.99. KEY ...

8 Jul 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Ecuador

Friday, July 3, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: ECUADOR. CURRENT PRODUCTION LEVELS: Ecuador's crude oil production averaged ~461,000-466,000 bbl/d Jan-Feb 2026. Daily lifts reported ~452,817-458,207 bbl/d...

3 Jul 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Belarus

Thursday, July 2, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: BELARUS. PRODUCTION OVERVIEW: Belarus produced ~25,000 bbl/d early 2026 (well below historical avg 33,650 bbl/d since 1993). Production reached 30-year hi...

2 Jul 2min

Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

Wednesday, July 1, 2026. WEEK 27 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil trading ~$69.98-$70.42. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). CRUDE OIL INVENTORY UPDATE...

1 Jul 3min

Technicals: Week 27

Tuesday, June 30, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $70. Recent closes ~$70.04-$70.42. Intraday range $69-$71 area. KEY LEVELS: Psychological support zone $70 (key round-number level). Imme...

30 Jun 2min

Doha Talks Resume

Monday, June 29, 2026. WEEK 27 OPENS. WTI crude oil opened at $70.50. Recent session range high $70.97, low $69.32. Prior close Jun 26 $69.23. Latest quotes ~$69.95-$70.21 (up slightly from Friday clo...

29 Jun 2min

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Friday, June 26, 2026. WEEK 26 COMPLETE. Twenty-six weeks running. The thesis delivers again. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened $74.82 (deal live, Hormuz open, geopolitical premium intact). Tuesday techn...

26 Jun 2min

Crude Breaks $70

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% pa...

25 Jun 2min