EMD102 - Strategic Positioning: Week Four

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, January 19, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. Week four of 2026. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI at $59.44, up 0.4%. Brent hovering near $63. Post-geopolitical spike stabilization. Last week's Iran fears faded. Venezuela back online. Surplus thesis intact. OPEC+ stuck between defending price floors and volume strategy. Most forecasts agree on surplus conditions 2026. IEA warning of possible super-glut if OPEC+ and rivals keep adding supply. Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent $56, WTI $52 for 2026 average. EIA same: Brent $56, WTI $52. We're trading above forecasts—mean reversion coming. **NATURAL GAS:** Henry Hub at $3.12, down from $3.16 Friday. Storage at 3,185 Bcf, 106 Bcf above 5-year average. Draw last week only 71 Bcf vs 146 Bcf 5-year average—warm weather killed demand. Europe storage 57-58% full vs 70% seasonal norm—bullish US LNG exports. Cold snap hitting now through Jan 20. This is the buy zone. Weather dips are entries, not exits. **CATALYST WATCH:** MLK Day today—markets closed. IEA Oil Market Report Jan 21. EIA Petroleum Status Jan 22. Cold snap Jan 18-20 peak. **BOTTOM LINE:** Crude range-bound, surplus looms. Gas weather dip loaded. Decoupling continues. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project needs capital? energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday: Technicals.

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Episoder(261)

Geographic Feature: Belarus

Friday, September 11, 2026. Belarus: marginal crude producer (2.0M tonnes annually, ~25k bpd, plans 2.1M 2026, 2.3M 2030); Belorusneft main producer, Russian subsidiary Yangpur 1M+ tonnes/yr; 96 field...

11 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Nevada

Thursday, September 10, 2026. Nevada remains marginal oil/gas producer (172k bbl 2025 down from 177k 2024, 207k 2023; historical peak 4M bbl 1990) with zero in-state refining capacity (only asphalt 1,...

10 Sep 2min

Geopolitical Premium Persists

Wednesday, September 9, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading near $93-$94/bbl testing $95 resistance. Sep 8 close Oct 2026 contract $93.50-$93.62 (+1.1-2.3% day), intraday highs $94.73, spot $92.36-$93...

9 Sep 2min

Technicals: Week 36

Tuesday, September 8, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS. WTI crude trading near $92 to $93 per barrel. Testing key resistance. Price action September 7 close around $90 to $92.29. Consolidating near $90 afte...

8 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Costa Rica

Friday, September 4, 2026. COSTA RICA ENERGY PROFILE. OIL AND NATURAL GAS: Costa Rica reports no proven oil reserves, produces only ~400 b/d petroleum liquids (unchanged YoY 2025; zero crude/NGPL). Oi...

4 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Yemen

Thursday, September 3, 2026. YEMEN OIL AND GAS PROFILE. RESERVES: Oil reserves consistently estimated at ~3 billion barrels (Masila, Marib/Sab'atayn, Shabwa basins), stable since ~2009, ranking ~27th ...

3 Sep 2min

Middle East Tensions

Wednesday, September 2, 2026. CRUDE OIL SPIKE. September 2, 2026: Closed at approximately $89.39 USD per barrel. Open: approximately $89.24. High: approximately $89.61. Low: approximately $89.22. Chan...

2 Sep 2min

Technicals: Week 35

Tuesday, September 1, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: Price context ~$84.90-$86.29 recently (e.g., 85.63 one platform), intraday ranges 84.13-86.78. RSI14 ~54.9-58 neutral-to-buy signal; some 57-62 shorte...

1 Sep 2min