Why the Market's New Leaders Aren't AI
We break down why the S&P is at record highs while the AI names lag, and why leadership is rotating from semis into software. We cover the in line CPI print, collapsing hike odds, and what Warsh is do...
14 Aug 38min
The Leaders of the Last 6 Months Won't Lead the Next
The S&P printed an all-time high on an Iran headline that's fallen through every other time it's shown up, semis are still 15% off their highs, and until our system flips we think this is a fake out. ...
7 Aug 29min
The next Phase of the Market Crash
We sold all of our tech on July 14 and we have not bought it back. The AI CapEx trade that carried the Nasdaq is fractured, Leopold got liquidated, and the vibes that took SanDisk to 2,400 are not hea...
31 Jul 30min
Why the Hormuz Escalation Just Broke the Rotation Thesis
We went full risk off on the 14th, and the worst case scenario we've been warning about is now playing out: inflation impulses re-accelerating on the Hormuz escalation, growth impulses dead in the wat...
24 Jul 38min
Rotation Or Crash? Your Portfolio Depends On This Call
We break down whether this is a market crash or just a rotation as capital flees semis and the AI CapEx trade into financials, healthcare, and utilities. Our regime model has flipped to stagflation, a...
17 Jul 25min
Why the Market Runs on Trump's Vibes
The market is at an inflection point, equities have not gone anywhere since inflation risks have come back on the table. We dive into the risks of an inflation resurgeance and the weak consumer. Learn...
10 Jul 36min
Disinflation Is Here And It Could Crash The Market
We break down why the inflation scare is already fading, with the 4.2% print looking transitory off tariffs and Iran rather than real consumer demand. Then we get into the two-economy split, the price...
26 Jun 32min
Is Disinflation the Bull Case Nobody's Talking About?
We break down Warsh's first FOMC presser and what less Fed forward guidance means for markets, then our latest Ledger post: why disinflation is the bull case, the case for an expansion regime, and how...
19 Jun 46min
