“The Scaling Series Discussion Thread: with Toby Ord” by Toby Tremlett🔹

“The Scaling Series Discussion Thread: with Toby Ord” by Toby Tremlett🔹

We're trying something a bit new this week. Over the last year, Toby Ord has been writing about the implications of the fact that improvements in AI require exponentially more compute. Only one of these posts so far has been put on the EA forum.

This week we've put the entire series on the Forum and made this thread for you to discuss your reactions to the posts. Toby Ord will check in once a day to respond to your comments[1].

Feel free to also comment directly on the individual posts that make up this sequence, but you can treat this as a central discussion space for both general takes and more specific questions.

If you haven't read the series yet, we've created a page where you can, and you can see the summaries of each post below:

Are the Costs of AI Agents Also Rising Exponentially?
Agents can do longer and longer tasks, but their dollar cost to do these tasks may be growing even faster.

How Well Does RL Scale?
I show that RL-training for LLMs scales much worse than inference or pre-training.

Evidence that Recent AI Gains are Mostly from Inference-Scaling
I show how [...]



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First published:
February 2nd, 2026

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JAcueP8Dh6db6knBK/the-scaling-series-discussion-thread-with-toby-ord

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Denne episoden er hentet fra en åpen RSS-feed og er ikke publisert av Podme. Den kan derfor inneholde annonser.

Episoder(250)

“Moral Imagination & Effective Altruism” by Toby_Ord

“Moral Imagination & Effective Altruism” by Toby_Ord

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28 Aug 11min

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18 Aug 9min

“What would make us scale or stop? NOVAH’s pre-commitment before seeing the RCT results” by I.J.J., AlexisAt

“What would make us scale or stop? NOVAH’s pre-commitment before seeing the RCT results” by I.J.J., AlexisAt

TL;DR NOVAH (No Violence At Home) was incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship (now Ambitious Impact) in 2024 to test a promising idea: preventing intimate partner violence through edutainment, in our ca...

17 Aug 15min

“General capability - and capabilities generally - have no good y-axis” by Gregory Lewis🔸

“General capability - and capabilities generally - have no good y-axis” by Gregory Lewis🔸

BLUF: To determine whether AI is ‘improving exponentially’, ‘hitting the wall’, or any other claim which involves a quantity or magnitude (e.g. ‘This model was a big leap/small increment’). We need a...

8 Aug 1h 7min

“Never born, then maybe died twice” by NickLaing

“Never born, then maybe died twice” by NickLaing

“Your balls are baked aren’t they, mate”. He would not have been bornThanks Lyndon, that describes the situation. Like almost 1 in 10 modern men, my sperm weren’t up to the task - at least not the old...

1 Aug 10min

“Announcing: Cluelessness Critiques Competition” by Toby Tremlett🔹, Will Aldred

“Announcing: Cluelessness Critiques Competition” by Toby Tremlett🔹, Will Aldred

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30 Jul 13min

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“Spiro: an update 2.5 years on and a fundraising ask for expansion” by Habiba Banu

Summary Back in November 2023 I posted here to launch Spiro and raise our first 198 thousand dollars. Two and a half years later this is an update and a fundraiser for the next step. The short version...

26 Jul 17min

“Let’s taboo the V-word” by lincolnq

“Let’s taboo the V-word” by lincolnq

“How long have you been v*g*n?” This is one of the most common icebreakers at animal protection events. It's a baseline assumption, and it mostly holds true: if you’re out advocating for animals not t...

14 Jul 12min

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