Bitcoin Enters Bear Market Behavior, What On-Chain Metrics Are Showing

Bitcoin Enters Bear Market Behavior, What On-Chain Metrics Are Showing

In this episode, Nik sits down with TBL on-chain analyst Johan Bergman to break down Bitcoin’s recent breakdown, sell-the-rip behavior, and the on-chain signals flashing bear market conditions. Johan walks through cost basis models, the AVIV Ratio Mean, short-term holder behavior, and why Bitcoin’s November trend break marked a major regime shift. They discuss ETF flows, forced selling, liquidation dynamics, and where real support may emerge next, while separating long-term conviction from short-term market reality.

📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.

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Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB

The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

Episoder(266)

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The Everything Bubble Is Over: Michael Howell’s Warning for 2026

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1 Apr 1h 8min

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25 Mar 57min

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In this episode, Nik welcomes back Yaël Ossowski, Fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, to break down the escalating standoff between Anthropic and the Pentagon. They examine how Claude was reported...

4 Mar 28min

Claude Eclipses Trump as the Most Important Force in Global Macro

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In this episode, Nik breaks down why Anthropic's Claude has displaced Donald Trump as the single most important force driving global macro and financial markets, walking through the system-level evide...

28 Feb 44min

Individual Ownership Peaked in 2024 and What Comes Next for Bitcoin

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In this episode, Nik sits down with Sam Baker, Research at River, to break down River's second annual Bitcoin adoption report, covering how institutional ownership, registered investment advisors, sov...

24 Feb 39min

The Liquidity Signal That Called Bitcoin's Drop Is Still Red

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In this episode, Nik walks through our TBL proprietary liquidity index, explaining why the red signal flagged in late December and confirmed in January preceded Bitcoin's sharp decline below $70,000. ...

18 Feb 28min

Global Macro Update: Inflation Cools, Bond Yields Drop, & Bitcoin Reacts

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13 Feb 32min

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