2026 YTD Recap: Six Weeks, One Thesis Confirmed

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, February 6, 2026 — Bonus Episode: 2026 Year-to-Date Recap. SIX WEEKS IN. 25 EPISODES. ONE THESIS CONFIRMED. THE DECOUPLING THESIS: From day one of 2026, we called it. Bearish crude, bullish natural gas. Short crude rallies, accumulate gas on dips. Six weeks later, the data confirms everything. CRUDE OIL JOURNEY: - Week 1: WTI opened $57.41. Brent $60.85. Digesting 2025's 20% crash. - Week 2: OPEC+ Jan 4 freeze delivered exactly as predicted. 1.65M bpd cuts locked. - Week 3: WTI spiked to $62 on Iran tensions. We called it a sell. Collapsed to $59.22. - Week 4: IEA confirmed 3.84M bpd surplus. WTI crashed to $59.33. - Week 5: Geographic features week. Pre-recorded. - Week 6: WTI CRASHED 5% Monday from $66.51 to $62.25. $63-64 resistance held. Gasoline inventories 257.9M — highest since June 2020. EIA FORECAST: $52 average for 2026. Current price 17% premium. NATURAL GAS JOURNEY: - Week 1: $3.44, down 5% on warm weather. - Week 4: EXPLODED 70% on brutal cold snap. Highest since 2022. - Week 6: $3.34-$3.46. Storage draw 379 Bcf. LNG 18.3 bcfd near record. EIA FORECAST: $3.50 avg 2026, $4.60 for 2027. THE SCORECARD: ✅ OPEC+ freeze: CORRECT ✅ Crude surplus: CONFIRMED ✅ Gas buy on dips: EXECUTED (70% spike) ✅ $63-64 resistance: HELD ✅ Decoupling thesis: CONFIRMED Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: energymarkets@protonmail.com

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Episoder(218)

Geopolitical Tensions Rising

Wednesday, January 8, 2026. WEEK 2 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil settled at $57.76, up $1.77 or 3.2%. Sharp rebound after two consecutive days of declines. Two-week high. Brent up 3.4% to $61.99. KEY ...

8 Jul 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Ecuador

Friday, July 3, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: ECUADOR. CURRENT PRODUCTION LEVELS: Ecuador's crude oil production averaged ~461,000-466,000 bbl/d Jan-Feb 2026. Daily lifts reported ~452,817-458,207 bbl/d...

3 Jul 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Belarus

Thursday, July 2, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: BELARUS. PRODUCTION OVERVIEW: Belarus produced ~25,000 bbl/d early 2026 (well below historical avg 33,650 bbl/d since 1993). Production reached 30-year hi...

2 Jul 2min

Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

Wednesday, July 1, 2026. WEEK 27 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil trading ~$69.98-$70.42. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). CRUDE OIL INVENTORY UPDATE...

1 Jul 3min

Technicals: Week 27

Tuesday, June 30, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $70. Recent closes ~$70.04-$70.42. Intraday range $69-$71 area. KEY LEVELS: Psychological support zone $70 (key round-number level). Imme...

30 Jun 2min

Doha Talks Resume

Monday, June 29, 2026. WEEK 27 OPENS. WTI crude oil opened at $70.50. Recent session range high $70.97, low $69.32. Prior close Jun 26 $69.23. Latest quotes ~$69.95-$70.21 (up slightly from Friday clo...

29 Jun 2min

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Friday, June 26, 2026. WEEK 26 COMPLETE. Twenty-six weeks running. The thesis delivers again. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened $74.82 (deal live, Hormuz open, geopolitical premium intact). Tuesday techn...

26 Jun 2min

Crude Breaks $70

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% pa...

25 Jun 2min