Market Update: Reality Check

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, February 12, 2026 — Market Update. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI surged to $65.13, up 1.8%. Iran tensions still in the driver's seat. BUT HERE'S THE REALITY CHECK: EIA weekly data dropped yesterday. Crude inventories BUILT 8.53 million barrels. Market expected a 200K draw. Massive miss. This is the oversupply thesis in action. Demand destruction. Builds stacking up. Yet price rallied on geopolitical noise. OPEC+ holding output through March. They're trapped. Can't increase without crushing prices. OUR READ: $65 is the ceiling we've called for weeks. This rally is borrowed time. Iran premium will fade like it did in Week 3. EIA $52 average forecast. We're 25% above that. Mean reversion coming. OUR POSITION: $65 is the exit. Short here. Target $52. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: EIA storage report drops today at 10:30am. Market expecting another significant draw. Context: Last week's 360 Bcf withdrawal was the largest ever recorded. Storage now 27 Bcf below 5-year average at 2.46 Tcf. EIA projects inventory ending March below 1.9 Tcf — 8% below forecasts. Henry Hub holding above $3.00 support. The bounce from oversold continues. OUR POSITION: Any pullback to $3.00-$3.25 is accumulation. EIA sees $4.30 avg. We see $4.50+. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: energymarkets@protonmail.com

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Episoder(261)

Geographic Feature: Belarus

Friday, September 11, 2026. Belarus: marginal crude producer (2.0M tonnes annually, ~25k bpd, plans 2.1M 2026, 2.3M 2030); Belorusneft main producer, Russian subsidiary Yangpur 1M+ tonnes/yr; 96 field...

11 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Nevada

Thursday, September 10, 2026. Nevada remains marginal oil/gas producer (172k bbl 2025 down from 177k 2024, 207k 2023; historical peak 4M bbl 1990) with zero in-state refining capacity (only asphalt 1,...

10 Sep 2min

Geopolitical Premium Persists

Wednesday, September 9, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading near $93-$94/bbl testing $95 resistance. Sep 8 close Oct 2026 contract $93.50-$93.62 (+1.1-2.3% day), intraday highs $94.73, spot $92.36-$93...

9 Sep 2min

Technicals: Week 36

Tuesday, September 8, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS. WTI crude trading near $92 to $93 per barrel. Testing key resistance. Price action September 7 close around $90 to $92.29. Consolidating near $90 afte...

8 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Costa Rica

Friday, September 4, 2026. COSTA RICA ENERGY PROFILE. OIL AND NATURAL GAS: Costa Rica reports no proven oil reserves, produces only ~400 b/d petroleum liquids (unchanged YoY 2025; zero crude/NGPL). Oi...

4 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Yemen

Thursday, September 3, 2026. YEMEN OIL AND GAS PROFILE. RESERVES: Oil reserves consistently estimated at ~3 billion barrels (Masila, Marib/Sab'atayn, Shabwa basins), stable since ~2009, ranking ~27th ...

3 Sep 2min

Middle East Tensions

Wednesday, September 2, 2026. CRUDE OIL SPIKE. September 2, 2026: Closed at approximately $89.39 USD per barrel. Open: approximately $89.24. High: approximately $89.61. Low: approximately $89.22. Chan...

2 Sep 2min

Technicals: Week 35

Tuesday, September 1, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: Price context ~$84.90-$86.29 recently (e.g., 85.63 one platform), intraday ranges 84.13-86.78. RSI14 ~54.9-58 neutral-to-buy signal; some 57-62 shorte...

1 Sep 2min