Market Update: Reality Check

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, February 12, 2026 — Market Update. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI surged to $65.13, up 1.8%. Iran tensions still in the driver's seat. BUT HERE'S THE REALITY CHECK: EIA weekly data dropped yesterday. Crude inventories BUILT 8.53 million barrels. Market expected a 200K draw. Massive miss. This is the oversupply thesis in action. Demand destruction. Builds stacking up. Yet price rallied on geopolitical noise. OPEC+ holding output through March. They're trapped. Can't increase without crushing prices. OUR READ: $65 is the ceiling we've called for weeks. This rally is borrowed time. Iran premium will fade like it did in Week 3. EIA $52 average forecast. We're 25% above that. Mean reversion coming. OUR POSITION: $65 is the exit. Short here. Target $52. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: EIA storage report drops today at 10:30am. Market expecting another significant draw. Context: Last week's 360 Bcf withdrawal was the largest ever recorded. Storage now 27 Bcf below 5-year average at 2.46 Tcf. EIA projects inventory ending March below 1.9 Tcf — 8% below forecasts. Henry Hub holding above $3.00 support. The bounce from oversold continues. OUR POSITION: Any pullback to $3.00-$3.25 is accumulation. EIA sees $4.30 avg. We see $4.50+. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: energymarkets@protonmail.com

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Episoder(218)

Geopolitical Tensions Rising

Wednesday, January 8, 2026. WEEK 2 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil settled at $57.76, up $1.77 or 3.2%. Sharp rebound after two consecutive days of declines. Two-week high. Brent up 3.4% to $61.99. KEY ...

8 Jul 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Ecuador

Friday, July 3, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: ECUADOR. CURRENT PRODUCTION LEVELS: Ecuador's crude oil production averaged ~461,000-466,000 bbl/d Jan-Feb 2026. Daily lifts reported ~452,817-458,207 bbl/d...

3 Jul 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Belarus

Thursday, July 2, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: BELARUS. PRODUCTION OVERVIEW: Belarus produced ~25,000 bbl/d early 2026 (well below historical avg 33,650 bbl/d since 1993). Production reached 30-year hi...

2 Jul 2min

Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

Wednesday, July 1, 2026. WEEK 27 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil trading ~$69.98-$70.42. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). CRUDE OIL INVENTORY UPDATE...

1 Jul 3min

Technicals: Week 27

Tuesday, June 30, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $70. Recent closes ~$70.04-$70.42. Intraday range $69-$71 area. KEY LEVELS: Psychological support zone $70 (key round-number level). Imme...

30 Jun 2min

Doha Talks Resume

Monday, June 29, 2026. WEEK 27 OPENS. WTI crude oil opened at $70.50. Recent session range high $70.97, low $69.32. Prior close Jun 26 $69.23. Latest quotes ~$69.95-$70.21 (up slightly from Friday clo...

29 Jun 2min

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Friday, June 26, 2026. WEEK 26 COMPLETE. Twenty-six weeks running. The thesis delivers again. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened $74.82 (deal live, Hormuz open, geopolitical premium intact). Tuesday techn...

26 Jun 2min

Crude Breaks $70

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% pa...

25 Jun 2min