Why Adam Posen Thinks Inflation Will Surge Back to 4%
Odd Lots13 Feb

Why Adam Posen Thinks Inflation Will Surge Back to 4%

The future is always tough to predict, but generally when it comes to inflation, a lot of the debate is about how long it will take the Federal Reserve to get back to its 2% target. In other words, people generally agree on the direction, but disagree on the speed. But our guest on this episode violently disagrees with the consensus direction. Peterson Institute President Adam Posen thinks inflation will be back at 4% by the end of the year. He first unveiled his thesis in a piece co-written with Lazard's Peter Orszag last month. Posen argues that the lagged effect of tariffs, immigration, further fiscal easing, and declining Fed credibility will combine to cause prices to reaccelerate. In this conversation, we speak with Posen about his thesis, and why he thinks the reports of economic softening are mistaken. We also talk about the broader geopolitical landscape and whether Europe is ready to really change its relationship with the United States.

More: A Very Non-Consensus Inflation Call

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episoder(1190)

How Shipping Insurance Really Works During a War

How Shipping Insurance Really Works During a War

When the conflict with Iran started, some of the first headlines we saw had to do with shipping insurance. Marine insurers were said to be canceling war risk coverage for vessels going through the Str...

10 Apr 53min

Thomas Peterffy on Interactive Brokers' Plan to Professionalize Prediction Markets

Thomas Peterffy on Interactive Brokers' Plan to Professionalize Prediction Markets

Right now, when you think about prediction markets, you basically think about two main companies: Polymarket and Kalshi. And then when you think of what's being traded on those platforms, there's a wh...

9 Apr 50min

Search Engine Presents: Are you a good driver?

Search Engine Presents: Are you a good driver?

The story of how a secret project at Google led to driverless cars on American roads. And, an answer to the question: are the robots actually safer drivers than we are? Find Part 2: “The Trial of the ...

8 Apr 1h 8min

Gina Raimondo on How European Industry Is Getting Crushed

Gina Raimondo on How European Industry Is Getting Crushed

The relationship between the US and Europe is deteriorating along both security and economic dimensions. The Trump administration has imposed tariffs, while also being sharply critical of NATO allies....

6 Apr 45min

Scott Bok Explains What Investment Bankers Actually Do All Day

Scott Bok Explains What Investment Bankers Actually Do All Day

There's obviously a lot of talk these days about AI and possible destruction of white collar jobs. Intuitively bankers might be expected to be victims of this. But before we can answer whether AI can ...

3 Apr 54min

This Is How to Tell if Writing Was Made by AI

This Is How to Tell if Writing Was Made by AI

When you consider the fact that many people don't know how and where to place a comma, it's safe to say that AI is already better than most people at writing. It's clean copy. It can be surprisingly p...

2 Apr 48min

Javier Blas on Why Oil Could Go Much, Much Higher

Javier Blas on Why Oil Could Go Much, Much Higher

Oil has shot up by a lot since the start of war with Iran. But it could still get much worse. So far, the massive disruption (due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz) has been cushioned by the draw...

1 Apr 41min

Why NASA Hired a Chief Economist

Why NASA Hired a Chief Economist

This week, NASA is scheduled to launch Artemis II, a mission that will send astronauts around the moon for the first time in more than 50 years. But this comes at a time when the space agency is facin...

31 Mar 49min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
stopp-verden
dine-penger-pengeradet
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
e24-podden
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
pengepodden-2
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
pengesnakk
finansredaksjonen
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
stormkast-med-valebrokk-stordalen
utbytte
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
liberal-halvtime
rss-sunn-okonomi
lederpodden
rss-markedspuls-2
rss-pa-konto
rss-investering-gjort-enkelt