Strategic Positioning: Week 8

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, February 16, 2026 — Strategic Positioning: Week 8. WEEK 8 OPENS. Eight weeks running. The decoupling thesis continues to deliver. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI dropped to $62.86 on Friday. Down from the $65.13 Iran spike we called to short on Thursday. That's a $2.27 drop in one session. Geopolitical premium fading exactly as predicted. EIA forecasts WTI to average $59 in February, falling to $57 in March, $55 in April, $53.50 in May. Then $50 for remainder of 2026. IEA sees 3.7 million bpd surplus. OPEC+ may resume supply hikes in April. OUR READ: The $65 ceiling held. Rally rejected. Mean reversion to $52 in progress. Stay short. OUR POSITION: Short any bounces toward $65. Target $52. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Henry Hub fell to $3.04 on Friday. Down 6.3% in one day. BUT HERE'S THE SETUP: Storage at 2,214 Bcf as of Feb 6. That's 130 Bcf BELOW five-year average. 97 Bcf below last year. EIA projects end of March below 1.9 Tcf. Structural deficit. Weather models showing colder late February. Heating demand coming back. EIA 2026 forecast: $4.30 average. That's 40% above current levels. OUR POSITION: $3.00-$3.05 is prime accumulation. Target $4.50+. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: energymarkets@protonmail.com

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Episoder(261)

Geographic Feature: Belarus

Friday, September 11, 2026. Belarus: marginal crude producer (2.0M tonnes annually, ~25k bpd, plans 2.1M 2026, 2.3M 2030); Belorusneft main producer, Russian subsidiary Yangpur 1M+ tonnes/yr; 96 field...

11 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Nevada

Thursday, September 10, 2026. Nevada remains marginal oil/gas producer (172k bbl 2025 down from 177k 2024, 207k 2023; historical peak 4M bbl 1990) with zero in-state refining capacity (only asphalt 1,...

10 Sep 2min

Geopolitical Premium Persists

Wednesday, September 9, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading near $93-$94/bbl testing $95 resistance. Sep 8 close Oct 2026 contract $93.50-$93.62 (+1.1-2.3% day), intraday highs $94.73, spot $92.36-$93...

9 Sep 2min

Technicals: Week 36

Tuesday, September 8, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS. WTI crude trading near $92 to $93 per barrel. Testing key resistance. Price action September 7 close around $90 to $92.29. Consolidating near $90 afte...

8 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Costa Rica

Friday, September 4, 2026. COSTA RICA ENERGY PROFILE. OIL AND NATURAL GAS: Costa Rica reports no proven oil reserves, produces only ~400 b/d petroleum liquids (unchanged YoY 2025; zero crude/NGPL). Oi...

4 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Yemen

Thursday, September 3, 2026. YEMEN OIL AND GAS PROFILE. RESERVES: Oil reserves consistently estimated at ~3 billion barrels (Masila, Marib/Sab'atayn, Shabwa basins), stable since ~2009, ranking ~27th ...

3 Sep 2min

Middle East Tensions

Wednesday, September 2, 2026. CRUDE OIL SPIKE. September 2, 2026: Closed at approximately $89.39 USD per barrel. Open: approximately $89.24. High: approximately $89.61. Low: approximately $89.22. Chan...

2 Sep 2min

Technicals: Week 35

Tuesday, September 1, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: Price context ~$84.90-$86.29 recently (e.g., 85.63 one platform), intraday ranges 84.13-86.78. RSI14 ~54.9-58 neutral-to-buy signal; some 57-62 shorte...

1 Sep 2min