Strategic Positioning: Week 8

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, February 16, 2026 — Strategic Positioning: Week 8. WEEK 8 OPENS. Eight weeks running. The decoupling thesis continues to deliver. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI dropped to $62.86 on Friday. Down from the $65.13 Iran spike we called to short on Thursday. That's a $2.27 drop in one session. Geopolitical premium fading exactly as predicted. EIA forecasts WTI to average $59 in February, falling to $57 in March, $55 in April, $53.50 in May. Then $50 for remainder of 2026. IEA sees 3.7 million bpd surplus. OPEC+ may resume supply hikes in April. OUR READ: The $65 ceiling held. Rally rejected. Mean reversion to $52 in progress. Stay short. OUR POSITION: Short any bounces toward $65. Target $52. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Henry Hub fell to $3.04 on Friday. Down 6.3% in one day. BUT HERE'S THE SETUP: Storage at 2,214 Bcf as of Feb 6. That's 130 Bcf BELOW five-year average. 97 Bcf below last year. EIA projects end of March below 1.9 Tcf. Structural deficit. Weather models showing colder late February. Heating demand coming back. EIA 2026 forecast: $4.30 average. That's 40% above current levels. OUR POSITION: $3.00-$3.05 is prime accumulation. Target $4.50+. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: energymarkets@protonmail.com

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Episoder(218)

Geopolitical Tensions Rising

Wednesday, January 8, 2026. WEEK 2 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil settled at $57.76, up $1.77 or 3.2%. Sharp rebound after two consecutive days of declines. Two-week high. Brent up 3.4% to $61.99. KEY ...

8 Jul 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Ecuador

Friday, July 3, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: ECUADOR. CURRENT PRODUCTION LEVELS: Ecuador's crude oil production averaged ~461,000-466,000 bbl/d Jan-Feb 2026. Daily lifts reported ~452,817-458,207 bbl/d...

3 Jul 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Belarus

Thursday, July 2, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: BELARUS. PRODUCTION OVERVIEW: Belarus produced ~25,000 bbl/d early 2026 (well below historical avg 33,650 bbl/d since 1993). Production reached 30-year hi...

2 Jul 2min

Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

Wednesday, July 1, 2026. WEEK 27 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil trading ~$69.98-$70.42. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). CRUDE OIL INVENTORY UPDATE...

1 Jul 3min

Technicals: Week 27

Tuesday, June 30, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $70. Recent closes ~$70.04-$70.42. Intraday range $69-$71 area. KEY LEVELS: Psychological support zone $70 (key round-number level). Imme...

30 Jun 2min

Doha Talks Resume

Monday, June 29, 2026. WEEK 27 OPENS. WTI crude oil opened at $70.50. Recent session range high $70.97, low $69.32. Prior close Jun 26 $69.23. Latest quotes ~$69.95-$70.21 (up slightly from Friday clo...

29 Jun 2min

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Friday, June 26, 2026. WEEK 26 COMPLETE. Twenty-six weeks running. The thesis delivers again. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened $74.82 (deal live, Hormuz open, geopolitical premium intact). Tuesday techn...

26 Jun 2min

Crude Breaks $70

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% pa...

25 Jun 2min