GM97: Why Isn’t Anything Breaking? ft. Steen Jakobsen

The global order is shifting in plain sight. In this Global Macro conversation, Steen Jakobsen, inventor of the Outrages Predictions, joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne to examine the slow grind reshaping productivity, debt, currencies, and political stability. From dollar regime risk to state capitalism, from market concentration to commodity repricing, the discussion moves beyond headlines to structural fault lines. Is gold signaling debasement? Can the U.S. sustain its debt path? Does AI lift productivity or hollow it out? Rather than predict collapse, Jakobsen outlines a drawn-out transition where capital reallocates, volatility hides beneath the surface, and political systems are tested long before markets finally react.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:38 - Introducing Steen Jakobsen

03:45 - From trading floors to outrageous predictions

06:32 - Dollar hedging and regime shift signals

08:06 - Davos as a macro catalyst

12:11 - The K shaped U.S. economy

14:50 - State capitalism and fiscal dominance

17:30 - What could invalidate the bearish dollar view

21:37 - Fed independence and policy credibility

24:49 - AI productivity or structural disinflation

27:56 - The modern Soviet analogy

31:21 - Democracy, debt and slow breakdown

33:18 - What could finally trigger market stress

37:08 - Commodities and tangible asset repricing

47:02 - Gold as a debasement signal

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Disclaimer

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