Driving Discussions: The Gasoline Glut - Markets Out of Balance

Driving Discussions: The Gasoline Glut - Markets Out of Balance

As part of our 5-part series looking into the outlook for refined products in 2026, this episode takes a deep dive into the global gasoline market.

The global gasoline market saw unseasonable strength in the final quarter of 2025, and this episode breaks down what’s behind it. We also discuss how EV adoption, policy shifts, and blending mandates are reshaping demand across key regions, assess the impact of new mega‑refineries on traditional trade flows, and highlight the critical drivers to watch as we move into 2026.

Gasoline cracks surprised to the upside in late 2025, peaking in November across Europe and Asia as widespread refinery maintenance in Asia and the Middle East tightened supply. But moving further into 2026, gasoline cracks are expected to come under pressure from more consistent gasoline supply and lengthening balances, particularly in the Atlantic Basin.

Listen to our market experts, Emma Pike - Gasoline Analyst, George Maher-Bonnett – Deputy Editor and Asill Bardh – Senior Reporter, as they discuss the latest developments shaping the global gasoline market, reflect on how it evolved through 2025, and outline the critical drivers to watch as we move into 2026.

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