Whit Ayres on 2024: How Weak is Trump? What about Biden?

Whit Ayres on 2024: How Weak is Trump? What about Biden?

Summing up the state of the 2024 race as we head toward the South Carolina primaries, veteran Republican pollster Whit Ayres says if the election were held today “Trump would win … in the Electoral College.”

Yet despite Trump’s quasi-incumbency, 40-45% of the Republican primary electorate have voted for other candidates to date. According to Ayres, Trump suffers from some major weaknesses as a candidate, which leave an opening for Nikki Haley—and portend problems for Trump in a general election. But Biden may be even weaker. As Ayres puts it, “the vast majority of Americans, including a vast majority of Democrats, think Biden is just too old to serve effectively…and virtually no one in either party thinks Kamala Harris is ready for prime time.” Despite the appearance of stability in the race—the increasing likelihood of a 2020 rematch—Ayres notes that a full 2/3 of Americans are unhappy with the choice between Biden and Trump. Kristol and Ayres consider how, beneath the surface, the 2024 contest may be unstable—with the potential for domestic and geopolitical events to intervene, and third-party challenges that could upend the race.

Episoder(317)

A.B. Stoddard on Trump’s Psyche—and The Implications for 2028

A.B. Stoddard on Trump’s Psyche—and The Implications for 2028

“This branding binge [Trump] has been on: with everything he’s trying to have put his name on. To build the White House ballroom, the arch in front of Arlington Cemetery. And the war and military adve...

23 Apr 1h 4min

Mark Blitz on the Enduring Importance of Aristotle

Mark Blitz on the Enduring Importance of Aristotle

“What is human happiness? What is political excellence? What is speech, and rhetoric? It’s always important to remind ourselves of that. But especially when you have artificial intelligence, and all o...

9 Apr 56min

Aaron Friedberg on the Iran War and the View from Beijing

Aaron Friedberg on the Iran War and the View from Beijing

“It’s hard for me to see how [the war] ends in a way that enhances our position in the world generally—and, in particular, enhances our position with relation to the country that I still think is our ...

19 Mar 1h 20min

Doug Sosnik on What to Expect in 2026—and Why 2028 Will Be Different

Doug Sosnik on What to Expect in 2026—and Why 2028 Will Be Different

“Whatever happens in 2026, I think no one should take any interpretation of that as a precursor to what’s going to happen in 2028.” So argues Doug Sosnik, former political director for Bill Clinton a...

27 Feb 1h 12min

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick: Trump’s Mass Deportation Regime

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick: Trump’s Mass Deportation Regime

“The US government wants to arrest, detain, and deport one in every 24 people in the country—4% of the US population. That cannot be done without fundamentally transforming who we are as a people and ...

12 Feb 1h 20min

Francis Fukuyama on Trump’s Bullying and Europe’s Response

Francis Fukuyama on Trump’s Bullying and Europe’s Response

“The Europeans have been in this alliance [NATO] to protect themselves, largely from Russia and other aggressors. And now it has an aggressor within the gates, so to speak. And that’s quite an extraor...

22 Jan 1h 1min

Ron Brownstein on What’s Ahead in 2026—and in 2028

Ron Brownstein on What’s Ahead in 2026—and in 2028

Where do things stand in American politics as we head into a midterm election year?  To discuss these questions we are joined again by Ron Brownstein, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and senior CNN poli...

30 Des 20251h 22min

Robert Kagan on Trump’s Foreign Policy and the New World Disorder

Robert Kagan on Trump’s Foreign Policy and the New World Disorder

“We take for granted the degree of peace that we’ve enjoyed over the past eight plus decades. And we think that’s the norm. The norm is actually a lot more like what the world looked like before 1945....

4 Des 20251h 13min

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