Precision-Guided Predictions: Intelligence Risk in Prediction Markets

Precision-Guided Predictions: Intelligence Risk in Prediction Markets

In this episode, we read Peter Burns' article on the intelligence risk in prediction markets. We explore how high-liquidity platforms like Polymarket democratize signal intelligence, potentially allowing individuals with inside knowledge to leak state intent. Tune in to hear about real-world examples, from Venezuela to Israel, where prediction markets compromised operational security.

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Episoder(100)

Russian Psychological Operations and Informational Warfare in the Middle East and North Africa

Russian Psychological Operations and Informational Warfare in the Middle East and North Africa

In this episode, we unpack how Russian psychological operations and information warfare are deployed across the Middle East and North Africa. From RT Arabic and Sputnik to targeted disinformation camp...

2 Sep 25min

Terrorism After Ideology

Terrorism After Ideology

In this episode, we unpack how state proxies, transactional violence, and hybrid tactics are reshaping security across Europe. We explore the operational shift from traditional, ideology-driven moveme...

1 Sep 21min

Meaning, Myth, and Force Design in U.S. Special Operations

Meaning, Myth, and Force Design in U.S. Special Operations

A deep-dive conversation exploring how strategic demand, historical mythology, and institutional feedback reshape U.S. Special Forces force design. This episode examines whether the Green Berets drift...

28 Aug 19min

A Case for Cyber Privateering

A Case for Cyber Privateering

In this episode, we unpack the strategic argument for employing private cyber actors ("cyber corsairs") to deter state-sponsored cyber aggression. We analyze historical 17th-century maritime privateer...

26 Aug 21min

What Iran's Crypto Insurance Proposal Means for Irregular Warfare and Shipping in Asia

What Iran's Crypto Insurance Proposal Means for Irregular Warfare and Shipping in Asia

In this episode, we explore Iran’s "Hormuz Safe" proposal—a Bitcoin-backed insurance mechanism for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. We discuss how Tehran uses digital assets, geography, and lega...

24 Aug 10min

Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal is Becoming More Vulnerable

Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal is Becoming More Vulnerable

Explore a deep-dive discussion on how the escalating Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict and shifting geopolitical dynamics are straining Pakistan’s nuclear security. This episode breaks down the weakening ...

21 Aug 21min

Why Iranian Propaganda Is Getting Uncomfortably Good

Why Iranian Propaganda Is Getting Uncomfortably Good

In this deep-dive episode, we unpack how state messaging transitioned from rigid revolutionary rhetoric into fluent, algorithm-optimized digital content. We explore the cognitive warfare tactics behin...

19 Aug 18min

Mexico’s Network War—Without a Network Strategy

Mexico’s Network War—Without a Network Strategy

In this episode, we unpack why Mexico’s two-decade security campaign against organized crime has operated as irregular warfare without a true network strategy. We discuss why capturing cartel leaders ...

17 Aug 22min

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