Betting on War: Inside the $54M Iran Wager Scandal

Betting on War: Inside the $54M Iran Wager Scandal

Are these markets more accurate than traditional polling?

Do they invite insider trading and corruption?

Should Congress ban wagering tied to government decisions?

And is betting on regime change ethically different from betting on the Super Bowl?

From Iran to Texas Senate races to the Oscars, this conversation explores the explosive rise of prediction markets — and whether they’re a powerful forecasting tool or a dystopian step too far.


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Episoder(1988)

Today's Poll Question: Should your state pause construction of new data centers?

Today's Poll Question: Should your state pause construction of new data centers?

Today's Poll Question at Smerconish.com: Should your state pause construction of new data centers? Michael examines the growing backlash against the massive facilities powering AI and the modern inter...

30 Jul 11min

Fauci Takes the Fifth: What Is He Hiding?

Fauci Takes the Fifth: What Is He Hiding?

Dr. Anthony Fauci invokes the Fifth Amendment before a Senate committee as Michael examines his newly released diaries, the lingering questions surrounding COVID’s origins and the bitter debate over m...

29 Jul 40min

Today's Poll Question: On balance, did Dr. Anthony Fauci do more good or more harm?

Today's Poll Question: On balance, did Dr. Anthony Fauci do more good or more harm?

Today's Poll Question at Smerconish.com: On balance, did Dr. Anthony Fauci do more good or more harm? Anthony Fauci returns to Capitol Hill under subpoena as newly released pandemic diaries revive que...

29 Jul 15min

Mark Kelly Could Be the Democrats’ 2028 Wild Card (...or Not.)

Mark Kelly Could Be the Democrats’ 2028 Wild Card (...or Not.)

Michael speaks with The Atlantic staff writer Mark Leibovich about his revealing profile of Arizona Senator Mark Kelly—combat veteran, astronaut, devoted husband to Gabby Giffords, and possible 2028 p...

28 Jul 30min

Today's Poll Question: How much longer will the war with Iran last?

Today's Poll Question: How much longer will the war with Iran last?

Today's Poll Question at Smerconish.com: How much longer will war with Iran last? Michael examines whether the U.S.-Iran conflict is approaching an end or settling into a prolonged confrontation. With...

28 Jul 12min

Small Plane, Big (Independent) Political Idea: Michael’s West Virginia Weekend

Small Plane, Big (Independent) Political Idea: Michael’s West Virginia Weekend

Michael recounts his eventful West Virginia weekend—from a thrilling flight aboard a small Cirrus aircraft to a visit to the historic Greenbrier—before revealing the real reason for his trip. He went ...

27 Jul 32min

Why Is Trump Less Risk-Averse in His Second Term?

Why Is Trump Less Risk-Averse in His Second Term?

Today's Poll Question at Smerconish.com: Why is President Trump so much less risk averse in his second term compared to his first? After reading Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan’s Regime Change, Mich...

27 Jul 11min

6,600 Noncitizens Registered, Nearly 400 Voted: What Happened in New Jersey?

6,600 Noncitizens Registered, Nearly 400 Voted: What Happened in New Jersey?

New Jersey says a software error mistakenly added approximately 6,600 noncitizens to its voter rolls—and fewer than 400 ultimately cast ballots. Does the incident undermine claims that noncitizen voti...

24 Jul 29min

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