Processing uncertainty in real time

Processing uncertainty in real time

Volatility has returned, and markets are recalibrating risk premia as new sources of uncertainty emerge across oil, inflation expectations, private credit and the AI investment cycle.

In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler speaks with Ajay Rajadhyaksha to break down how markets are processing this uncertainty, and the transmission mechanisms that matter most for the medium-term path.

They explore how investors are interpreting elevated oil prices and what sustained higher prices could mean for inflation expectations, as well as why private credit concerns remain slow moving rather than systemic. They also examine the structural tailwinds from AI, where hyperscaler CapEx and breakthrough adoption rates may continue to anchor long run productivity and growth.

As the conversation tracks the market reaction to the escalating conflict in Iran and other recent headline shifts, Ronnie and Ajay focus on the observable indicators and signals shaping the medium-term outlook.

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:

Middle East Escalation Hub

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Barclays Equity Factor Insights: March 2026

Takeaways From Anthropic's Enterprise Agent Event

Important Content Disclosures

Important non-Research Content Disclosures

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Episoder(33)

Decoding the bond sell-off

Decoding the bond sell-off

Global bond yields have been rising sharply, with long-term yields breaking higher across multiple markets - pushing US 30‑year yields above 5%.​The sell-off was initially triggered by energy-linked i...

19 Mai 11min

Inflation crosscurrents: Energy vs AI

Inflation crosscurrents: Energy vs AI

Markets are facing two competing inflation stories at the same time: a near‑term energy shock pushing inflation risks higher, and the possibility that AI acts as a medium to longer-run disinflationary...

12 Mai 12min

Jet fuel shortage: Holidays at risk?

Jet fuel shortage: Holidays at risk?

Jet fuel shortages linked to the continuing Iran war are dominating headlines, raising questions about whether this poses a genuine risk to global travel or whether markets are getting ahead of the re...

5 Mai 10min

Credit: the signals markets can’t ignore

Credit: the signals markets can’t ignore

Credit markets often process stress before other parts of the market are able to. During periods of volatility, the signals they send can help investors distinguish between shocks that are likely to p...

28 Apr 8min

Robots deliver dinner and profits

Robots deliver dinner and profits

Food delivery is changing fast, with last-mile autonomous hardware being developed and deployed at pace. In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Guillaume Galland to explore...

21 Apr 10min

Prediction markets: A new market signal

Prediction markets: A new market signal

Prediction markets are suddenly top of mind for a range of people. From elections and sporting events to pop culture and breaking news, probabilities are flashing across screens in real time. What sta...

14 Apr 10min

The quantum computing moment

The quantum computing moment

Quantum computing has long been viewed as a future technology. Now, it’s poised to overtake classical computing systems in specific useful tasks in the next 12-24 months.In this episode of Barclays Br...

7 Apr 12min

The cusp of a capex supercycle

The cusp of a capex supercycle

In recent months, market narratives have been dominated by geopolitical shocks, energy volatility and higher interest rates. But step back, and a much bigger story is coming into focus.Advanced econom...

31 Mar 13min

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