View from the Gulf: Nader Itayim on Iran’s "Existential War" and the 8 Million Barrel Shutdown

View from the Gulf: Nader Itayim on Iran’s "Existential War" and the 8 Million Barrel Shutdown

Nader Itayim of Argus Media joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to analyze the unprecedented escalation of the direct conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States and its devastating impact on global energy markets. The discussion explores how Iran has transitioned from decades of "proxy warfare" to what leadership now describes as an "existential war," abandoning its traditional "strategic patience" in favor of lashing out to create maximum economic chaos. Itayim details the severe physical disruptions to the market, revealing that nearly 8 million barrels per day have been shut in across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq. A major focus is placed on the strategic maneuvers of Saudi Aramco, which is "sweating its assets" by utilizing the East-West pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and export crude through the port of Yanbu. Host Rory Johnston and Nader critique the Trump administration's lack of a clear endgame, highlighting the tension between military goals like "sinking the Navy" and the urgent need to prevent a full-scale global economic depression. The conversation delves provides insight into the fragmented leadership within Tehran, where various power centers like the IRGC may be operating independently to target regional refineries and critical infrastructure. But what does an end game to this conflict look like? Rory and Nader question whether the Gulf can ever return to being a "safe neighborhood" after such a profound display of regional instability.

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Episoder(63)

Bob McNally on Hormuz, Oil Prices, and the End of Energy Security Assumptions

Bob McNally on Hormuz, Oil Prices, and the End of Energy Security Assumptions

Rory Johnston welcomes legendary energy analyst Bob McNally to Oil Ground Up for a sweeping conversation on the Strait of Hormuz crisis, global oil supply disruptions, and the fragile state of today’s...

29 Mai 1h 4min

How Iran Weaponized the World’s Most Important Oil Chokepoint

How Iran Weaponized the World’s Most Important Oil Chokepoint

Edward Fishman joins Rory for a sweeping conversation on the evolution of modern economic warfare, the origins of U.S. sanctions strategy against Iran, and how today’s Strait of Hormuz crisis is resha...

22 Mai 1h 7min

Energy Stocks Are Still Cheap? Eric Nuttall Explains the Opportunity

Energy Stocks Are Still Cheap? Eric Nuttall Explains the Opportunity

Eric Nuttall joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to discuss what he believes is the largest energy supply shock in modern history following the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He explains why m...

7 Mai 1h 1min

Tracking Tankers Through Chaos: Shadow Fleets, Blockades, and the New Oil War

Tracking Tankers Through Chaos: Shadow Fleets, Blockades, and the New Oil War

Maritime intelligence expert Michelle Bockmann joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to unpack the unprecedented disruption in global oil flows following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. She e...

29 Apr 54min

Amena Bakr on the Market Blindness to the 13 Million Barrel Shock

Amena Bakr on the Market Blindness to the 13 Million Barrel Shock

Amena Bakr, the Head of Middle East Research at Kpler, joins Rory to provide an inside look at the functional closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where daily traffic has collapsed from 170 vessels to jus...

24 Apr 1h 5min

Paper vs Physical: Inside Oil’s $30 Backwardation Shock with Veteran Trader Adi Imsirovic

Paper vs Physical: Inside Oil’s $30 Backwardation Shock with Veteran Trader Adi Imsirovic

Adi Imsirovic, a veteran oil trader and former academic, returns to the podcast to break down the mechanics of the Brent market at a moment of historic disruption. With more than 13 million barrels pe...

17 Apr 46min

Record Backwardation: Understanding the Economic Return of USO in the Midst of a Global Supply Loss

Record Backwardation: Understanding the Economic Return of USO in the Midst of a Global Supply Loss

John Love, the CEO of USCF Investments, joins the podcast to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the United States Oil Fund (USO), which was the third commodity ETF ever launched. He explains that unlik...

9 Apr 56min

Brutal Barrel Math: The Destruction of 10+ Million Barrels a Day Demand

Brutal Barrel Math: The Destruction of 10+ Million Barrels a Day Demand

Karim Fawaz joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to analyze the relentless four-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on global energy balances. The conversation explores why futures markets ...

2 Apr 58min

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