Betting on Taylor Swift or Who'll Be Made Pope: The Past and Present of Prediction Markets

Betting on Taylor Swift or Who'll Be Made Pope: The Past and Present of Prediction Markets

A live mash-up between Business History and Bloomberg's Everybody's Business.

On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket you can bet on just about anything - from Taylor Swift's album sales to whether President Trump will say a certain word in a speech. Many people worry about these new prediction markets, but the concept is far older than some critics might think.

We go back centuries to Papal conclaves; hear about how counting drinking toasts stood in for political polling; and learn how the US government tried using betting markets to predict terrorist attacks.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Episoder(31)

Ida Tarbell: The "Muckraker" Who Beat John D Rockefeller and Big Oil

Ida Tarbell: The "Muckraker" Who Beat John D Rockefeller and Big Oil

At a time when women couldn't vote or freely enter the workplace, Ida Tarbell took on the richest man in America and triumphed. Ida grew up in the Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1870s, and saw how Joh...

10 Jun 46min

"Time is Money": How Ben Franklin's Sayings Created American Capitalism and Grind Culture

"Time is Money": How Ben Franklin's Sayings Created American Capitalism and Grind Culture

Benjamin Franklin had a full life - he was a scientist, statesman, and a Founding Father. But we're looking at the huge impact he had as a writer of best-selling business books. Franklin first picked ...

3 Jun 44min

The Founding Father Who Got Rich in the Revolution

The Founding Father Who Got Rich in the Revolution

Two-hundred-and-fifty years ago George Washington was fighting the Revolutionary War against the British, but Robert Morris doing something just as vital. He was raising money for the fighting and buy...

27 Mai 47min

The Dumbest Business Ever... Shipping Melting Ice to Calcutta.

The Dumbest Business Ever... Shipping Melting Ice to Calcutta.

Frederic Tudor could get ice any time he wanted. He lived in chilly Boston and his family had a lake that froze over in the winter. Harvesting ice and storing it was a normal thing in New England in t...

20 Mai 47min

The Match Maker Who Nearly Burned Down Wall Street

The Match Maker Who Nearly Burned Down Wall Street

Swedish entrepreneur Ivar Kreuger built a fortune selling matches. He used this money to build a world famous financial empire that bankrolled whole countries. France borrowed from Kreuger. Germany bo...

13 Mai 48min

Did "Neutron" Jack Welch Nuke GE?

Did "Neutron" Jack Welch Nuke GE?

In 1999, Jack Welch was named "Manager of the Century". As CEO of General Electric for 20 years, Welch transformed the conglomerate and made it the biggest company in the world. Nicknamed "Neutron Jac...

6 Mai 53min

The Widow Who Ruled the Champagne World

The Widow Who Ruled the Champagne World

Running a wine business in Napoleonic France wasn't easy. Constant wars meant naval blockades stopped you exporting your wares and invading armies might loot your cellars. But it was even harder for w...

29 Apr 40min

The Business of Staying Young and Living Forever (with Kara Swisher)

The Business of Staying Young and Living Forever (with Kara Swisher)

Kings and emperors spent fortunes pursuing the secret of eternal youth - but now it's tech billionaires who want to live forever and are funding research into scientific (and not-so-scientific) ways t...

22 Apr 42min

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