The cusp of a capex supercycle

In recent months, market narratives have been dominated by geopolitical shocks, energy volatility and higher interest rates. But step back, and a much bigger story is coming into focus.

Advanced economies may be on the cusp of a new, historic investment cycle – one with the potential to rival the great build‑outs of the past, from 19th‑century railroads to the Apollo missions and the information‑technology boom of the 1990s.

While much of the capex narrative has focused on AI and the race by hyperscalers to build faster, more efficient models, this is only one part of the picture. Energy systems, electrification, defence spending and economic resilience are all reinforcing the scale of capital deployment now underway.

In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Christian Keller, Chief Economist at Barclays, to examine how 150 years of investment data show that long periods of under‑investment are often followed by powerful capex cycles and why after two decades of weakness, the latest numbers point to the early stages of one with historic potential.

Listeners can hear more on this topic:

•Episode 22: Processing uncertainty in real time

•Episode 17: Metals & mining: meltdown or opportunity?

•Episode 7: US dollar & the AI capex cycle

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:

•Supersize me: The coming investment cycle

•Cracks, but not a crater (Q2 Global Outlook)

•Defence Quarterly: a 10-year cycle still to come?

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