Prediction Markets: All Bets Are War
What A Day10 Apr

Prediction Markets: All Bets Are War

From the moment the U.S. and Israel launched strikes in Iran at the end of February, several people have been profiting from them because of extremely well-timed bets they made on the prediction market website Polymarket. In March, Polymarket barred trades based on, “stolen confidential information.” And yet people appear to still be making trades using insider information. Just this week, a group of newly created accounts bet correctly on the U.S. and Iran reaching a ceasefire on April 7th. Saahil Desai, senior editor at The Atlantic, joins the show to discuss how prediction markets are capitalizing on war.

And in headlines, the White House denies reports of a schism between the Trump administration and the Vatican, humanitarian groups say the ceasefire in Gaza is failing, and a new analysis finds out just how much Democrats are saying the f-word on social media.

Show Notes:

Episoder(1590)

Should Democrats Be The Anti-War Party?

Should Democrats Be The Anti-War Party?

Trump’s war in Iran is now 45 days old with no end in sight — which is a problem for Republicans. Because while midterms are always tough for the party in power, an unpopular war with no exit strategy...

14 Apr 26min

Why Iran Spells Trouble For The GOP

Why Iran Spells Trouble For The GOP

A very tired-looking Vice President JD Vance emerged from 21 hours of high-stakes peace talks on Sunday to say no deal has been made to end the Iran war — a failure that comes with serious economic an...

13 Apr 20min

A Trumped Up Ceasefire

A Trumped Up Ceasefire

In the brief period since President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States, Iran has claimed that the United States and Israel have violated its terms. As a res...

9 Apr 23min

Trump & Iran: From Doomsday To Ceasefire

Trump & Iran: From Doomsday To Ceasefire

President Donald Trump posted a disturbing threat on Truth Social on Tuesday morning. If Iran did not meet his demands by 8 PM Eastern, "​​A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought ba...

8 Apr 23min

Lebanon, The Iran War’s Second Front

Lebanon, The Iran War’s Second Front

The Iran War has a second front in Lebanon, where Israel has been fighting Hezbollah, a militia that launched missiles into northern Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader. Isr...

7 Apr 25min

For Hegseth, It’s One Military Under God

For Hegseth, It’s One Military Under God

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is inserting Christian nationalism into the culture and policy of the armed forces, and that’s drawing concern both inside and outside the military. The Pentagon had spen...

6 Apr 21min

Pam, You're Fired

Pam, You're Fired

Attorney General Pam Bondi is out of a job. After multiple media reports stating she was headed to the green pastures of… somewhere else, President Trump officially announced her departure Thursday on...

3 Apr 23min

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