SI395: Finding Alpha in the Strait of Chaos ft. Andrew Beer

Markets are currently being shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, rapid technological change, and shifting investor behavior. In this episode, Andrew and Niels explore how these forces are influencing trend following and systematic investing. They discuss recent market volatility, the impact of global conflict on asset prices, and why traditional diversification assumptions are being tested. A key focus is the evolving structure of the CTA industry, including the rise of ETFs and the debate between complexity and simplicity in generating alpha. The conversation also examines replication strategies, implementation costs, and whether simpler approaches may deliver more efficient and consistent outcomes over time.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:27 - Geopolitical uncertainty and parallels to past crises

03:13 - Why this crisis feels different from previous ones

04:24 - Ideology, negotiation, and unintended consequences

06:16 - AI, technology, and the changing global landscape

10:58 - Technology dependence and societal tradeoffs

12:37 - Market environment and trend following conditions

16:02 - CTA performance and the macro “do over” of 2026

21:11 - Traditional markets vs systematic strategies

22:39 - Hedge fund losses and dispersion across strategies

25:48 - CTA alpha, simplicity, and ETF performance

32:42 - Complexity vs efficiency in portfolio construction

39:40 - Hidden implementation costs in systematic trading

52:21 - QIS strategies and the illusion of beta

57:43 - Structural challenges in QIS products

01:03:12 - Index construction, research, and innovation constraints

01:08:47 - Fees, transparency, and real investor costs

01:12:41 - Product evolution and the future of systematic investing

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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