Will Hurricane Forecasts Get Worse? Inside the NOAA Budget Cuts

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Could hurricane forecasts actually get worse? A deep dive into the proposed 2027 budget cuts to NOAA and how eliminating key research could impact storm prediction, safety, and future forecast accuracy.

Could hurricane forecasts actually get worse in the years ahead?

The proposed FY2027 federal budget includes major cuts to U.S. science agencies—but one of the most important changes may be happening inside the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

In this episode of Meteorology Matters, we break down how the proposed elimination of NOAA’s research arm could impact hurricane forecasting, severe weather prediction, and long-term model improvements.

While day-to-day forecasts may continue uninterrupted, the real concern is what happens behind the scenes—where research drives the next generation of forecasting accuracy.

We explore:

• Why hurricane intensity forecasting could improve more slowly

• How U.S. weather models could fall behind global leaders

• The role of research in tornado, severe weather, and seasonal prediction

• What this means for Florida, the Gulf Coast, and beyond

We also examine broader cuts across NASA, NSF, and NIH, along with a shift toward defense spending and applied technologies like artificial intelligence.

And with Congress having rejected similar cuts before, the big question remains—will these changes actually happen?

This episode breaks down the science, the policy, and what it could mean for the future of weather forecasting in the United States.

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