Is Nuclear Winter Actually a Possibility or Just Pseudoscience?

As horrific as a nuclear war would be in the immediate, a common idea is that the real troubles for humanity, and the world, would actually occur in the long aftermath, triggering what is now commonly known as nuclear winter- a nightmarish scenario in which atmospheric temperatures would drop dramatically, crops would fail, and widespread famine, disease, and unrest would follow, leading to a catastrophic reduction in the global population, or even the end of human civilization. But just what is ‘nuclear winter’ anyway? Who came up with it, and is it actually a real possibility, or just some scientists with way too much time on their hands and a news media who loves them some good doomsday scenarios, whether they are valid possibilities or not. Well, put on your gas mask and lead-lined underwear as we dive into the controversial history and science of one of the most frightening doomsday scenarios ever conceived. Surprisingly, the first published suggestion that a nuclear war could alter the global climate appeared not in an official scientific publication, but rather in fiction. In the post-apocalyptic short story Tomorrow’s Children by American science fiction writer Poul Anderson, first published in the March 1947 issue of Astounding Science Fiction, a team of scientists hunt down mutated humans in the wake of a nuclear war. At one point, the story’s protagonist High Drummond observes that: “Winter lay heavily on the north, a vast grey sky seeming frozen solid over the rolling white plains. The last three winters had come early and stayed long. Dust, colloidal dust of the bombs, suspended in the atmosphere and cutting down the solar constant by a deadly percent or two. There had even been a few earthquakes, se off in geologically unstable parts of the world by bombs planted right. Half of California had been ruined when a sabotage bomb started the San Andreas Fault on a major slip. And that kicked up still more dust. Fimbulwinter, thought Drummond bleakly. The doom of the prophecy.” Anderson later adapted this story into a full-length novel titled Twilight World, first published in 1961. The same phenomenon also appears in Christopher Anvil’s short story Torch, published in the April 1957 issue of Astounding Science Fiction. In this story, a Soviet nuclear ballistic missile test in Siberia accidentally sets fire to an oil field, releasing large amounts of oily soot into the atmosphere that blots out the sun and triggers a global ice age. The term Fimbulwinter or “mighty winter” in Anderson’s original 1947 story is drawn from Norse Mythology, and refers to a series of three particularly harsh winters preceding Ragnarök, the apocalyptic battle of the Gods that will destroy and cleanse the world. While the origins of any mythological concept are hard to pin down, it has been speculated that Fimbulwinter may have been inspired by the Volcanic Winter of 536, in which a series of simultaneous volcanic eruptions ejected vast amounts of particulates - especially sulfur dioxide - into the upper atmosphere. They lingered there for years, blocking out the sun’s rays and causing global temperatures to drop by as much as 2.5 degrees Celsius or 4.5 degrees. As Roman historian Precopius recorded: “And it came about during this year that a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon, during this whole year, and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear nor such as it is accustomed to shed. And from the time when this thing happened men were free neither from war nor pestilence nor any other thing leading to death.” Author: Gilles Messier Host / Editor: Daven Hiskey Producer: Samuel Avila Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices