Ep 32 - Investing During Uncertainty: War, Elections & Your Money

Investing amid uncertainty is the focus of this week's Metcalf Money Moment, as Jeb, Ethan, and Eric unpack what the data say about market volatility during wars and elections. Across 20 major geopolitical events since World War II, stocks recovered in an average of 47 trading days. Election year investing also shows surprising strength, with 83% of presidential election years producing positive S&P 500 returns. The team explores how to protect your portfolio during geopolitical uncertainty and why staying the course almost always beats reacting to headlines.

What you will Learn in this Episode:

✅ How investing during uncertainty has historically played out across major conflicts, including the Korean War, Cuban Missile Crisis, and 9/11, and why stock market recovery tends to happen faster than most investors expect.

✅ Why election year investing is less about which party wins and more about the market cycle itself, and what the data shows about midterm elections and the strong performance that typically follows them.

✅ Practical steps for managing market volatility, including opportunistic rebalancing, building a cash allocation buffer, and why dollar cost averaging can smooth your entry point during turbulent periods.

Tune into the Metcalf Money Moment podcast for expert insights on wealth management and retirement planning! Join Jeb, Ethan, and Eric for practical Estate Planning strategies that you can implement to unlock financial clarity and confidence. Listen now to inspire your financial journey!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Introduction to investing during uncertainty, war, and what markets historically do during geopolitical risk

03:41 Eric reviews stock market recovery patterns across the Korean War, Cuban Missile Crisis, and Gulf War

10:07 Jeb breaks down election year investing data, party performance, and the truth about political impact on the S&P 500

13:50 What the midterm election cycle means for portfolio management and why 2026 may see a significant market drawdown

16:18 Discussion of diversification, rebalancing, risk and the importance of cash allocation

22:45 The team tackles the question of market timing and why dollar cost averaging versus lump sum investing matters

25:01 Why compound interest and disciplined savings rates build more wealth than trying to time or predict the market

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

💎 History shows that geopolitical risk creates short-term fear, but investor emotions are often the biggest threat to long-term wealth. The average drawdown across 20 major conflicts was just 5%, and markets recovered within an average of 47 trading days.

💎 A well-structured financial plan aligned with your risk tolerance is your best defense against volatility. Clients who maintain a stable asset allocation for one to two years rarely need to react when markets drop.

💎 Compound interest and disciplined saving rates build more wealth over time than any attempt at market timing. The most financially successful people focus on what they can control, not on predicting the next crisis.

DISCLAIMER:

This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax or legal advice. We recommend discussing your particular situation with a qualified tax or legal advisor.

RESOURCES MENTIONED:

Metcalf Partners - Website

Jeb Graham - LinkedIn

Ethan Hutcheson - LinkedIn

Eric Wymore - LinkedIn