The Great Rate Hike Hoax – Ep. 116

The Great Rate Hike Hoax – Ep. 116


* Here we go again; Janet Yellen was on Capitol Hill testifying about the banking system
* Forget about all her comments about how solvent the banking industry is - of course it's not
* The banking system is more vulnerable and more highly leveraged than before the bailout
* I am focusing on what she did or did not say about the Fed's intentions to raise rates in December and how the markets reacted
* Headlines following the testimony were about the probability that the Fed will raise rates in December
* The December meeting will be a live meeting with a rate hike on the table
* The official probability of a December rate hike rose from 50% to 60%
* When the Fed did not raise rates in October they removed language referencing concerns about international markets
* This was interpreted as a more hawkish stance on the part of the Fed
* The global economy was used as an excuse, but the Fed had no intention of raising rates in October
* In December when it doesn't raise rates, it'll use another excuse
* The markets wants to believe that the Fed will rates, and as soon as Yellen's comments were released, the dollar soared and gold tanked
* Let's look at what Janet Yellen actually said: first I am going to go to a Reuters story, Fed's Yellen sees possible December rate rise
* That's all it takes, just the mention of a possibility makes everybody jump to the conclusion it is going to happen
* Here's Yellen's quote directly from the artice:
* "What the committee has been expecting is that the economy will continue to grow at a pace that is sufficient to generate further improvements in the labor market and to return inflation to our 2 percent target over the medium term,"
* "If the incoming information supports that expectation then our statement indicates that December would be a live possibility."
* She is saying, if we get the improved data we're expecting
* The labor market has been weakening and the last two jobs numbers have been quite weak
* Yellen says it is possible if we get improvements we expect we will raise rates
* Anything is possible... it is more probable that she is not going to raise rates in December
* She actually says it's a long shot
* She's been saying this all year and it has not meant anything
* Reuters omitted from the article that Yellen followed up the above statement by reiterating that at this point, the Fed still has not made up its mind
* Another story from CNBC:Janet Yellen: December rate hike a 'live possibility'
* Here's a Yellen quote from this article:
* "Now no decision has been made on that and, what it will depend on, is the [Federal Open Market Committee's] assessment at the time. That assessment will be informed by all of the data that we collect between now and then,"
* This implies that they intend to collect data from now until the December meeting and make their decision on that data
* If the Fed does not know now, how different can the data be?
* If nothing is going to change, why not make a decision?
* Yellen's monetary policy is to pretend to raise rates and then not do it
* If you actually listen to what she is saying, it is far more probable that she won't raise rates, because thus far, we have not seen an improvement in the data she is tracking
* Even if the Fed sees improvements, they still might not raise rates
* Here's the one thing that Yellen is not doing: she does nothing to alter the false perception that a rate hike is likely
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Episoder(1075)

Weak Earnings and Bad Economic Data Pummel Stocks – Ep. 48

Weak Earnings and Bad Economic Data Pummel Stocks – Ep. 48

* Wall Street spared blizzard only to be buried in bad earnings and bad economic news * December durable goods down 3.4%; expected to come in at +.7 * Consumer confidence up to 102.9; contrarian indicator * Last time consumers were this confident was in the middle of 2007 * Number will collapse when reality has a violent confrontation with perception * P&G earnings down 31% * Caterpillar warned * Microsoft stock down 10% today * UPS announced they overestimated holiday sales * Businesses geared up for a recovery in late 2013 that was not going to happen * Layoffs coming in 2015 * This may give the Fed an excuse to delay rate increase * How can a strong dollar be good for America but a weak euro be good for Europe? Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

28 Jan 201535min

Obama Misstate of the Union – Ep. 47

Obama Misstate of the Union – Ep. 47

* The President is taking credit for an economic recovery that is a bubble created by the Fed * Obama voters' salaries are much lower now than when he was elected * We have fewer full-time jobs during Obama presidency * Obama is offering freebies to the middle class, promising to tax the "wealthy" * Getting money that you didn't earn is "fair" * Higher taxes on earned money is "fair" * Capitalism built the middle class * The Government has destroyed the middle class * Obama actually claimed that he "reduced" the national debt Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

23 Jan 201510min

Central Banks Wage War Against Low Prices – Ep. 46

Central Banks Wage War Against Low Prices – Ep. 46

* Big action from the Central Banks this week * Bank of Canada lowered rates from 1% to .75% * The ECB announced the launch of first QE program * The Euro plunged against gold * Central Banks' goal is to raise the level of inflation to guard against falling prices * Falling prices accelerate economic activity * Regulations and taxes slow down economies * QE in Europe lets the politicians escape the consequences of regulations and taxes * QE will send European money abroad * Inflation is an obstacle to economic growth Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

23 Jan 201523min

Gold Rally Continues, Yuan/Dollar Peg Explained – Ep. 45

Gold Rally Continues, Yuan/Dollar Peg Explained – Ep. 45

* Biggest 7-day surge in Gold prices since 2011 * U.S. GDP will be lower than in Canada this year * Canadian gold production will rise in 2015 * Gold is rising against most currencies except the Swiss Franc * The IMF still believes the U.S. economy is recovering * Outlook for gold in Australia is also positive * The Yuan will probably be the next peg to go, allowing it to rise against the dollar * The American workforce is being rewarded for incurring large debt to engage in unproductive careers Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Jan 201522min

Will China Pull a “Switzerland” on the U.S. Dollar?

Will China Pull a “Switzerland” on the U.S. Dollar?

* Thursday, January 15, will be remembered as the day Switzerland abandoned its peg to the Euro * The Swiss defended their policy to peg to the Euro, but suddenly reversed, limiting their losses * They admitted they were wrong * Although the Swiss stock market went down in their currency, it was up in every other currency * Gold is up against everything except the Swiss franc * The news in the Swiss market will be a tremor compared to the earthquake if the Chinese abandon their peg both to the Hong Kong Dollar and the Yuan * America will win the currency war to the detriment of the American people Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Jan 201524min

Switzerland Loses Currency War Swiss Win – Ep. 44

Switzerland Loses Currency War Swiss Win – Ep. 44

* The Swiss people have given up the inflation ghost to win the currency war * Media reports negative on the news: "silly decision" * Oil down against the Swiss Franc * Swiss stocks up in U.S. dollars * Wall Street expects Eurozone QE, but without Swiss, QE might be less likely * Gold up against other currencies * Franc surging in value against the dollar * This move may signal economic reform * Unfortunately Janet Yellen is not going to get this memo * Volatility from Swiss move is nothing compared to consequences of a U.S. QE 4 * This move is bearish for the U.S. market * Buckle up, it's going to be a bumpy ride Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Jan 201517min

Denial Runs Deep From Wall Street To Bitcoin – Ep 43

Denial Runs Deep From Wall Street To Bitcoin – Ep 43

* Dow down 600 points in between Tuesday high and Wednesday low * Stock market and real estate are pillars of the phony recovery * Loose government lending standards encouraging mortgage defaults * Dollar down and gold up on low retail sales numbers * Fed not likely to sit out a U.S. recession, trading support for Wall Street over the dollar * The next QE could be bearish for bonds and the dollar * Demise of the recovery illusion will also hurt stocks * Bitcoins down on more bad news * Price does matter as investors seek value * Irredeemable digital currencies will never be money Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Jan 201533min

Jobs Up But Earnings and Participation Down – Ep. 42

Jobs Up But Earnings and Participation Down – Ep. 42

* December jobs report up; unemployment down * Average hourly earnings dropped * Labor force participation hits new low, except for older Americans * Fewer young workers supporting the Social Security system * Most credit comprised of student loans and auto loans * Auto delinquencies highest since 2008, indicating a bubble * Obama's plan to make community college free will further inflate costs * Charles Evans calls for more inflation before raising interest rates * Denies relationship between cheap money and bubbles * The term "patience" indicates no timeframe for higher rates * Gold stocks very strong and gold prices continue to rise in face of rising dollar Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

11 Jan 201521min

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