Stocks Start Year With Biggest Drop in 84 Years – Ep. 128

Stocks Start Year With Biggest Drop in 84 Years – Ep. 128


* The U.S. stock market opened the first trading day of 2016 with a bang, but not the type of bang the bulls were hoping for
* The Dow was down 276 points-it was down as much as 450 points in the last hour of trading
* In fact,we opened down 300 and change and we hung around the down 350 - 400, in fact down 276, at the close was about the best level of the day
* The NASDAQ closed down around 104
* The Dow Jones transports continues to get crushed - the weakest index on the day, down 156 points
* We're now down more than 20% from last year's high, officially in bear market territory in the Dow Jones transportation - and don't blame this on weak oil prices because transports benefit from weak oil prices
* This is all about weakness in the economy
* A lot of the carnage was blamed on China because China was down 7% overnight, the worst first day of the year in the history of Chinese stocks
* Supposedly the catalyst was a weaker than expected PMI in China - I don't believe for a second that the market was down 7% based on that report
* First, there were two PMI's released, and one was slightly better than estimates and the one that was slightly below came in at 48.2 vs. expectation of 49
* I think the Chinese market would have gone down regardless of the PMI numbers
* The irony of it is that our own recently-released Chicago PMI on New Year's Eve and our number was way worse than the Chinese number
* We were expecting 50, an improvement from 48.7 - instead we went down to 42.9
* Bad economic news in China creates a terrible response, but bad economic news in the U.S. and no one even cares!
* Why, because the Fed tells us everything is awesome and we can ignore all the evidence that the economy is far from awesome
* Singapore reported a 5.7% increase in GDP for its 4th quarter, yet that number is being discounted
* Yet no one wants to believe the good news from foreign governments, and no one believes bad news from the U.S. because the Fed's narrative is still out there
* We got more bad economic news today: We got another PMI manufacturing number expected to be 52.8, it came in at 51.2
* Even worse was the December ISM number - last month was 48.6 - it was expected to improve to 49.2- instead, it dropped to 48.2
* That's a bigger miss than China, yet no one here cared
* Also, construction spending was a huge miss: the consensus was for a gain of .7; instead we lost .4
* It gets worse, because last month the gain was expected to be a full point
* The numbers that came out today were so bad that the Atlanta Fed, who recently revised down its Q4 GDP forecast from 1.9 to 1.3 a week or so ago and today they went down to .7
* In my last podcast, I said that soon the Atlanta Fed is going to take their Q4 GDP estimate below 1 and that is just what they did
* We have a lot more bad economic data that is going to come out between now and the end of the month when we get the first estimate of Q4 GDP and there's a pretty good chance that it will be negative, which is halfway to a recession
* With a negative GDP in the 4th quarter, we have a better than 50/50 chance of having another negative GDP in the first quarter and that would put us officially in a recession
* Just in time for the Fed to raise interest rates again - Not!
* More people are coming to the same conclusion I have for a long time now, that the Fed had backed themselves into a corner and felt they had to raise rates regardless of the fact that the data didn't meet their criteria
* I knew that if the Fed raised interest rates that they would regret it because they would have to reverse their direction based on the weak economy combined with a weak market
* Interestingly, there has only been one year ending in "5", Our Sponsors: * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Episoder(1075)

Weak Earnings and Bad Economic Data Pummel Stocks – Ep. 48

Weak Earnings and Bad Economic Data Pummel Stocks – Ep. 48

* Wall Street spared blizzard only to be buried in bad earnings and bad economic news * December durable goods down 3.4%; expected to come in at +.7 * Consumer confidence up to 102.9; contrarian indicator * Last time consumers were this confident was in the middle of 2007 * Number will collapse when reality has a violent confrontation with perception * P&G earnings down 31% * Caterpillar warned * Microsoft stock down 10% today * UPS announced they overestimated holiday sales * Businesses geared up for a recovery in late 2013 that was not going to happen * Layoffs coming in 2015 * This may give the Fed an excuse to delay rate increase * How can a strong dollar be good for America but a weak euro be good for Europe? Our Sponsors: * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

28 Jan 201535min

Obama Misstate of the Union – Ep. 47

Obama Misstate of the Union – Ep. 47

* The President is taking credit for an economic recovery that is a bubble created by the Fed * Obama voters' salaries are much lower now than when he was elected * We have fewer full-time jobs during Obama presidency * Obama is offering freebies to the middle class, promising to tax the "wealthy" * Getting money that you didn't earn is "fair" * Higher taxes on earned money is "fair" * Capitalism built the middle class * The Government has destroyed the middle class * Obama actually claimed that he "reduced" the national debt Our Sponsors: * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

23 Jan 201510min

Central Banks Wage War Against Low Prices – Ep. 46

Central Banks Wage War Against Low Prices – Ep. 46

* Big action from the Central Banks this week * Bank of Canada lowered rates from 1% to .75% * The ECB announced the launch of first QE program * The Euro plunged against gold * Central Banks' goal is to raise the level of inflation to guard against falling prices * Falling prices accelerate economic activity * Regulations and taxes slow down economies * QE in Europe lets the politicians escape the consequences of regulations and taxes * QE will send European money abroad * Inflation is an obstacle to economic growth Our Sponsors: * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

23 Jan 201523min

Gold Rally Continues, Yuan/Dollar Peg Explained – Ep. 45

Gold Rally Continues, Yuan/Dollar Peg Explained – Ep. 45

* Biggest 7-day surge in Gold prices since 2011 * U.S. GDP will be lower than in Canada this year * Canadian gold production will rise in 2015 * Gold is rising against most currencies except the Swiss Franc * The IMF still believes the U.S. economy is recovering * Outlook for gold in Australia is also positive * The Yuan will probably be the next peg to go, allowing it to rise against the dollar * The American workforce is being rewarded for incurring large debt to engage in unproductive careers Our Sponsors: * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Jan 201522min

Will China Pull a “Switzerland” on the U.S. Dollar?

Will China Pull a “Switzerland” on the U.S. Dollar?

* Thursday, January 15, will be remembered as the day Switzerland abandoned its peg to the Euro * The Swiss defended their policy to peg to the Euro, but suddenly reversed, limiting their losses * They admitted they were wrong * Although the Swiss stock market went down in their currency, it was up in every other currency * Gold is up against everything except the Swiss franc * The news in the Swiss market will be a tremor compared to the earthquake if the Chinese abandon their peg both to the Hong Kong Dollar and the Yuan * America will win the currency war to the detriment of the American people Our Sponsors: * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Jan 201524min

Switzerland Loses Currency War Swiss Win – Ep. 44

Switzerland Loses Currency War Swiss Win – Ep. 44

* The Swiss people have given up the inflation ghost to win the currency war * Media reports negative on the news: "silly decision" * Oil down against the Swiss Franc * Swiss stocks up in U.S. dollars * Wall Street expects Eurozone QE, but without Swiss, QE might be less likely * Gold up against other currencies * Franc surging in value against the dollar * This move may signal economic reform * Unfortunately Janet Yellen is not going to get this memo * Volatility from Swiss move is nothing compared to consequences of a U.S. QE 4 * This move is bearish for the U.S. market * Buckle up, it's going to be a bumpy ride Our Sponsors: * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Jan 201517min

Denial Runs Deep From Wall Street To Bitcoin – Ep 43

Denial Runs Deep From Wall Street To Bitcoin – Ep 43

* Dow down 600 points in between Tuesday high and Wednesday low * Stock market and real estate are pillars of the phony recovery * Loose government lending standards encouraging mortgage defaults * Dollar down and gold up on low retail sales numbers * Fed not likely to sit out a U.S. recession, trading support for Wall Street over the dollar * The next QE could be bearish for bonds and the dollar * Demise of the recovery illusion will also hurt stocks * Bitcoins down on more bad news * Price does matter as investors seek value * Irredeemable digital currencies will never be money Our Sponsors: * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Jan 201533min

Jobs Up But Earnings and Participation Down – Ep. 42

Jobs Up But Earnings and Participation Down – Ep. 42

* December jobs report up; unemployment down * Average hourly earnings dropped * Labor force participation hits new low, except for older Americans * Fewer young workers supporting the Social Security system * Most credit comprised of student loans and auto loans * Auto delinquencies highest since 2008, indicating a bubble * Obama's plan to make community college free will further inflate costs * Charles Evans calls for more inflation before raising interest rates * Denies relationship between cheap money and bubbles * The term "patience" indicates no timeframe for higher rates * Gold stocks very strong and gold prices continue to rise in face of rising dollar Our Sponsors: * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

11 Jan 201521min

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