Data Dependent Fed Ignores Bad Data – Ep. 192

Data Dependent Fed Ignores Bad Data – Ep. 192


* Last week on Thursday we got that much weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing number, which didn't get a lot of attention because it came out a day before the jobs number which cast a pretty big shadow on all the economic data
* The number came in very weak, as I pointed out, it was 49.4, which is contraction mode
* Anything below 50 in the ISM numbers indicates a contraction and a recession
* But of course, no one cares about manufacturing because it is such a small part of the U.S. economy, which in and of itself, is a major problem
* The fact that it is such a small part of the economy should be very concerning, because without manufacturing you really can't have a service sector
* The way the U.S. gets away with it is to just import with everyone else manufactures and we run enormous trade deficits, which is an unsustainable model
* It's a great gravy train while the ride lasts, but when the rest of the world figures out that we can never pay our debts, then the gravy train comes to an end
* The trade deficit represents an artificially high standard of living, but in the long run it's unsustainable because our creditors will not let us get away with this forever
* I want to get to the ISM Non-Manufacturing number which came out yesterday; this represents the service sector of the economy
* They were looking for 55, which was not a great number; last month we got 55.5, so there was some optimism around that number
* They were looking for 55 even and, instead, the number came in at 51.4
* The lowest number in better than 6 years
* And if you look beneath the surface and all the various components; new orders, back logs, hiring - horrible numbers consistent with recession
* The complete opposite of what everybody was looking for, and when you combine this with the 49.4 we got from manufacturing that is a very bleak picture
* The fact that we are at 6+ lows in the service sector does not bode well for the future
* The trajectory is down, and how much longer is it going to be before the ISM Non-Manufacturing breaches the 50 mark?
* Just when they start talking about these rate hikes - everything before this number came out questioned a September or a December rate hike - foregone conclusion
* We had the same discussion in September a year ago
* They punted and raised rates in December - will they do it again?
* Given the bad news to date, there is really no way the Fed is going to raise rates in September
* But just when the Fed officials are talking up a rate hike, everything changes with some bad news
* The Fed never admits the data is bad they just don't raise rates and you've got to figure it out for yourself
* When the ISM Non-Manufacturing number came out, gold took off
* It continued to rise throughout the day and closed up better than $20
* Gold got back above $1350 after having just tested the $1300 level
* Silver had a big up day; it went back above the $20 mark
* We had a strong move up in the gold stocks again following Thursday and Friday's strong move in gold stocks
* The markets were very surprised, and when this number came out, all of a sudden all the bets were changing
* The odds for a September rate hike were way down
* But not that much for December, because people are just assuming they can't go in September because we got this bad news, but, of course, by December, we may get some good news
* The reality is that by then, there will be even more bad news
* The Fed is not going to be raising rates; they are just talking about it, politically
* In fact, John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco late last night ignored the bad financial news entirely in his statement, Our Sponsors: * Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Episoder(1074)

Another Fake Trump Trade Win - Ep 1026

Another Fake Trump Trade Win - Ep 1026

Peter Schiff rebukes Wall Street's false triumph over a China trade deal, dissects Trump's failed tariffs, and criticizes misguided drug pricing policies and questionable gifts from foreign nations.Sign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/goldIn this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff critiques the perceived celebration on Wall Street over a supposed trade deal with China, which he calls 'fake news.' He argues that rather than achieving a deal, President Trump merely rolled back the heavy tariffs he had initially imposed, with no substantial progress or concessions from China. Schiff contends that Trump's moves were a strategic surrender rather than a negotiation victory and attributes market reactions, such as stock rallies and gold price drops, to a relief from avoided economic damages. Schiff also criticizes Trump's populist actions such as advocating for drug price controls and accepting a questionable $400 million jet from Qatar. Schiff concludes by discussing the implications for markets and reiterates his advice on investing in gold and foreign currencies to protect against economic instability.⭐️ Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟨 Gold News: http://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffChapters:00:00 Introduction: Wall Street Celebrates Fake Trade Deal02:50 Trump's Tariff War: The Real Story03:35 The Geneva Meeting: A Surrender in Disguise05:34 The Illusion of Victory: Trump's PR Spin17:44 Market Reactions: Stocks, Gold, and the Dollar25:38 The Bigger Picture: Economic Implications34:58 Moving Away from US Dollars35:39 Trump's Price Controls on Prescription Drugs40:10 The FDA and Drug Development Costs55:29 Trump's $400 Million Jet from Qatar01:05:07 Conclusion and Final Thoughts#Trump #Tariffs #ChinaOur Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Mai 1h 4min

Trump's Tariffs Will Make China Great Again - Ep 1025

Trump's Tariffs Will Make China Great Again - Ep 1025

Peter Schiff analyzes the Federal Reserve's unchanged rates, critiques Trump's economic claims, and predicts the fallout from current trade policies.Sponsored by NetSuite. Download the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://netsuite.com/goldIn this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff critically analyzes the Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.5%, highlighting Powell's inconsistent views on inflation expectations and economic conditions. Schiff also discusses President Trump’s silence on Powell's statements and questions the efficacy of trade talks with China, predicting a looming economic disappointment. He continues by scrutinizing Trump's contradictory claims regarding improving trade deficits and the misguided reliance on tariffs. Schiff emphasizes the inevitable economic consequences of current policies and suggests strategic financial adjustments, such as investing in foreign currencies and gold, to brace for impending stagflation and market instability. As always, Schiff echoes his critical stance on governmental and economic mismanagement while providing expert financial advice to his listeners.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffChapters:00:00 Introduction01:19 Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision02:07 Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment02:52 President Trump's Silence on Powell03:39 Powell's Press Conference Highlights04:01 Inflation Expectations and Economic Outlook07:06 Stagflation Risks and Fed's Dilemma11:38 Powell's Q&A Session Insights15:46 Gold and Dollar Market Movements23:20 China Trade Talks and Economic Implications25:46 China's Economic Strategy and US Relations32:28 Potential US Treasury Default and Economic Risks36:38 Who Pays Tariffs?37:53 The Secretary of the Treasury's Dilemma40:36 Trump's Economic Claims43:00 Deficit Spending and Government Cuts47:56 Tariff Impact on Small Businesses53:54 Trump's Tariff on Movies57:49 Warren Buffett's Strategic Moves01:00:35 Investing in Foreign Markets01:02:31 Gold and Silver Investment Opportunities01:02:57 Gold Mining Stocks Analysis01:04:26 Silver's Potential Upside01:05:15 Conclusion and Final Thoughts#Tariffs #Trump #ChinaOur Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

8 Mai 1h 4min

Stocks Soar on Trade War De-Escalation Hopes - Ep 1024

Stocks Soar on Trade War De-Escalation Hopes - Ep 1024

Peter Schiff critiques the April stock market rally, U.S.-China trade war optimism, misleading economic indicators, and the ethical implications of the 'Executive Branch' social club.Sponsored by Stash. Go to https://get.stash.com/gold to see how you can receive $25 towards your first stock purchase and to view important disclosures.Peter Schiff scrutinizes the apparent rebound in the stock market during April, questioning the sustainability of the rally amidst underlying economic weaknesses. Peter dives deep into the illusory optimism fueled by hopes of trade war de-escalation, explaining why he believes the recent market surge is built on unfounded optimism. He further discusses intricacies of the U.S.-China tariff battle, debunking the administration’s claims about the benefits of a strong dollar and pointing out the inconsistencies in trade policies. Additionally, Peter sheds light on the controversial implications of the Trump administration's strategies, including the ethical questions surrounding the newly established 'Executive Branch' social club. Stay tuned as Peter Schiff provides an unfiltered take on our economic reality and calls out misleading governmental narratives.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffChapters:00:00 Introduction and Market Overview01:00 Stock Market Rebound Analysis02:28 Trade War and Tariff Impacts04:04 China's Tariff Reductions and U.S. Response09:25 Dollar Policy and Trade Deficits11:35 Economic Data and Market Reactions28:29 Job Market Insights and Government Reports36:30 Construction Spending and Economic Outlook36:52 Manufacturing and GDP Analysis38:11 Trump's Economic Claims and Popularity41:06 Impact of Tariffs on Prices and Economy44:22 Trade Deficit and Consumer Confidence53:55 Canadian Elections and Tariff Effects57:12 Trump's Executive Branch Club Controversy01:06:13 Podcast Conclusion and Personal Anecdotes#tariffs #Trump #GDPOur Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

3 Mai 1h 6min

America’s Trade Problems Are Made in the U.S.A. - Ep 2023

America’s Trade Problems Are Made in the U.S.A. - Ep 2023

Peter Schiff critiques Trump's market manipulations, discusses gold and Bitcoin's movements, and highlights economic weaknesses, suggesting gold mining stocks as a superior investment strategy.This episode is sponsored by Kalshi. Get $10 when you sign up and makes a $100 trade by 4/28/25 at https://kalshi.com/goldNew song by Laughing Cats: https://open.spotify.com/album/5u5RJ6to4r0onnugvZt3mZ?si=jQO0r0jDQx2yPc2D73Of3APeter Schiff discusses the market's recent rally as a bear market rally and critiques former President Donald Trump's offhand comments about Jerome Powell's rate policies. Schiff argues that Trump's administration manipulated markets with strategic statements, but didn't address the fundamental economic issues, like the hollowing out of America's manufacturing base. Schiff also discusses gold's surge to a near all-time high, contrasting it with Bitcoin's performance. He criticizes the U.S. focus on becoming a crypto superpower at the expense of industrialization. Schiff concludes with commentary on rejected mortgage refinancing applications and existing home sales reflecting economic weakness, promoting gold and gold mining stocks as the best investment strategy.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffChapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:56 Market Turnaround Analysis01:53 Trump's Influence on the Market02:54 Gold and Dollar Movements06:00 Fed's Political Influence20:13 Gold Mining Stocks Performance27:37 Bitcoin and Crypto Market29:40 Trump's Approval Ratings and Economic Promises31:41 Economic Trends Under Trump31:59 Media's Role in Economic Perception32:26 Impact of Tariffs on the Economy33:39 Public Reaction to Economic Policies34:42 Trade Deficits and Blame Game36:41 Misconceptions About Tariffs38:48 Global Trade and Economic Realities42:58 Trump's Economic Strategies and Their Flaws45:07 Recession and Economic Indicators54:48 Conclusion and Personal NotesOur Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

28 Apr 58min

Gold’s Rise Warns of Dollar’s Demise - Ep 1022

Gold’s Rise Warns of Dollar’s Demise - Ep 1022

Peter Schiff discusses record gold highs, critiques media's focus on Bitcoin, and warns of impending economic crisis exacerbated by tariffs and undervaluation of gold stocks.This episode is sponsored by Shopify. Sign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/goldIn this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter discusses the significant rise in gold prices, reaching new record highs and experiencing unprecedented one-day increases. He criticizes mainstream financial media, particularly CNBC, for ignoring the surge in gold prices and instead focusing on Bitcoin. Peter correlates the current economic scenario with the 2008 housing bubble, where ignorance of underlying issues led to a financial crisis. He argues that Trump’s policies, such as tariffs, have contributed to economic instability. Peter also highlights the undervaluation of gold mining stocks compared to the rising prices of gold. He emphasizes the broader implications of a weakening US dollar, including higher consumer prices and ineffective future Fed policies. Schiff cautions about a forthcoming financial crisis exacerbated by current economic missteps and the media's dismissal of gold's significance.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffChapters:00:00 Gold's Record-Breaking Week02:20 Gold's Historical Context and Market Reactions05:28 Media's Ignorance and Bitcoin Comparison13:01 The Dollar's Decline and Economic Implications20:11 Investment Strategies and Gold Mining Stocks31:27 Foreign Investments and Market Dynamics35:23 Understanding De-dollarization35:53 Foreign Debt Dynamics36:50 Impact of De-dollarization on the Dollar37:18 Misconceptions About Trade and the US Economy38:24 China's Economic Position39:06 The Reality of American Consumers39:52 China's Trade Strategy43:38 Global Trade Without the US44:49 Critique of US Trade Policies46:07 The Imbalance in Economies47:40 Regulation and Competitiveness49:39 Political Narratives and Trade Deficits54:11 Bitcoin and Economic Predictions57:50 The Role of Central Banks01:01:48 Conclusion and Final Thoughts#gold #bitcoin #inflationOur Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

18 Apr 1h 2min

The US Already Lost the Trade War - Ep 1021

The US Already Lost the Trade War - Ep 1021

Peter Schiff dives into the wild financial markets, tariff drama, trade deficits, and golden opportunities.Download the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://netsuite.com/goldPeter Schiff discusses the recent turmoil in the financial markets, attributing it to the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration. Schiff criticizes the tariffs, asserting that they hurt the U.S. economy, caused the dollar and bond markets to crash, and ultimately led to significant market volatility. He contends that Trump's tariffs were a misguided attempt to reduce trade deficits and that they contradicted basic economic principles. Schiff outlines how foreign investors fleeing U.S. assets and central banks favoring gold over dollars indicate a shift away from U.S. economic dominance. He emphasizes the importance of investing in gold mining stocks, anticipating substantial growth as the economic crisis unfolds.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffChapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks02:38 Market Recap: A Wild Week05:43 Tariffs and Trade Wars08:51 Trump's Negotiation Tactics14:58 Impact on the US Economy18:42 Global Reactions and Consequences26:53 Currency and Market Movements35:41 Economic Consequences of Tariffs36:38 Impact on American Companies38:11 Global Financial Crisis Predictions42:40 Gold and Bitcoin Market Analysis45:30 Investment Strategies in Gold Stocks51:34 The Future of the US Dollar and Global Economy01:03:04 Final Thoughts and Investment Advice#finance #investing #goldOur Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Apr 1h 5min

April Fool's Day Came Late - Ep 1020

April Fool's Day Came Late - Ep 1020

Trump’s tariffs will hurt U.S. consumers and industries, leading to higher prices, fewer imports, and potential recession, while discussing their legality.Go to https://get.stash.com/gold to see how you can receive $25 towards your first stock purchase and to view important disclosures.Peter Schiff discusses the steep decline in the stock market following President Trump's announcement of tariffs, with a focus on how these tariffs will negatively impact the U.S. economy. The host argues that, contrary to Trump's claims, the tariffs will not rejuvenate American industries and will instead lead to higher prices for consumers, fewer imports, and potential recession. The tariffs are considered illegal and unconstitutional by the host, who explains that tariffs, historically, have been a burden on the middle class and poor. The host also mentions China's retaliatory tariffs and the broader implications on global trade and economic stability.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffChapters:00:00 Introduction: The High Stakes of Trading00:57 Market Meltdown: The Impact of Tariffs03:39 Stock Market Analysis: Winners and Losers05:15 The Global Trade War: China's Retaliation08:01 The Economics of Tariffs: Winners and Losers08:52 The Shoe Industry: A Case Study11:41 The Bigger Picture: US Consumption and Production25:53 The Constitutional Debate on Tariffs29:49 Trump's Tariff Strategy: A Closer Look35:44 Global Trade Deficits and Tariffs36:20 Scapegoating Immigrants and Trade Policies37:07 Historical Context of Tariffs and Taxes40:13 The Populist Movement and Income Tax43:59 Impact of Tariffs on the Middle Class47:16 Economic Consequences of Tariffs52:13 Global Recession and Market Reactions57:32 China's Role and Global Supply Chains01:01:54 Investment Strategies and Economic Predictions01:05:27 Conclusion and Final Thoughts#tariffs #trump #stocksOur Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Apr 1h 4min

The Not So Secret Word Is Stagflation - Ep 1019

The Not So Secret Word Is Stagflation - Ep 1019

Peter Schiff discusses market sell-offs, stagflation, tariffs, gold vs. Bitcoin performance, Fed policies, economic shifts, government inefficiencies, and his legal battle over his bank's closure.Go to https://get.stash.com/gold to see how you can receive $25 towards your first stock purchase and to view important disclosures.Go to https://linkedin.com/schiff to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply.Peter Schiff discusses recent stock market sell-offs, the impact of economic data pointing to stagflation, and the effects of tariffs. He highlights the divergences between gold and Bitcoin performances, emphasizing gold’s bullish trend and Bitcoin’s decline. Schiff explains the complications of stagflation for the Federal Reserve, economic repercussions of ongoing tariffs, and potential shifts in financial markets. He also touches on Trump's potential policy impacts and the inefficacies within government programs and unions. Schiff concludes with insights into his legal battle over his bank’s closure.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffChapters:00:00 Introduction and Market Overview00:54 Personal Update and Podcast Delay03:00 Stock Market Analysis05:22 Bitcoin vs. Gold14:16 Economic Data and Stagflation27:47 Tariffs and Market Impact32:49 Tariffs and Their Economic Impact33:39 Critique of Trump's Economic Advisors34:32 Globalization and Its Reversal35:19 Inflation and Domestic Money Supply37:54 Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations39:26 Impact of Car Tariffs44:17 Public Sector Unions and Government Spending52:01 Bitcoin and Government Financial Policies55:34 Personal Legal Battle and AI Analysis01:01:31 Conclusion and Final Thoughts#Stagflation #Silver #BitcoinOur Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

31 Mar 1h

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