What Are Investors Smoking? – Ep.  387

What Are Investors Smoking? – Ep. 387

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GM Hit New Low for the Year
If you want to look at some of the signals you're getting from the markets, look at the automobile stocks: General Motors and Ford, which are basically the only 2 automobile companies we have left. (Chrysler is now owned by Fiat.) They both hit 52-week lows today and they're both in bear markets. General Motors closed at $33.91 - a new low for the year. The stock was as high as $46.76 in June. The stock is down almost 30% in the last couple of months. It's a bear market.
Ford at a Six-Year Low
The story at Ford is even worse. Ford was up at around $12 a couple of months ago. It is down to $9.27. If you look at its high - it was at $16 in September of 2014. Ford is down to where it was the summer of 2012 - 6 years ago. It's at a 6-year low. If we go any lower we'll be at an . 8-year low.
Two Auto Companies Solidly in Bear Market
So you've got our 2 automobile companies solidly in bear market territory, making new lows. These are vital parts of the economy. There are many industries that feed off these companies, the aftermarket industries. These are the good jobs, the high paying jobs that Trump promised to bring back. Remember he was really campaigning in Detroit and other places where they make cars. These companies are hitting multi-year lows.
Tariffs Aren't Helping Auto Industry
So the tariffs aren't working. The tax cuts aren't working. The auto companies are going down. Remember, stocks are forward looking, so the stocks are basically saying that there is a big slowdown coming in the automobile sector. Profits are not going to be there. Tax cuts are not going to be very valuable if there aren't any profits.
Industry Slowdown in Home Building
Also look at what is happening with the home building companies. All these stocks getting killed - some down over 5% today alone. They are pretty much all in bear market territory. So now the homebuilders are also saying, "The industry is going to slow down."
Autos and Housing Are Not Booming
Those are 2 very important sectors of the economy: housing and autos. If they are on the verge of recession. If the stocks in those sectors are forecasting recession, how is it possible that the U.S. economy is experiencing a "historic boom"? "It's booming like it's never boomed before!" Yet autos and housing are not only not part of the boom, they're actually having a bust. Riddle me that, Batman. How is it that the economy is so strong when these two key sectors are so weak?
Interest Rates and Inflation
Why are these sectors so weak? Well one reason, of course, is rising interest rates. Everybody believes that interest rates are going to keep rising which means more nails in the coffin of the auto sector and the housing sector. And of course, both housing and autos are being hit by inflation because of raw material costs. It's more expensive to build cars - it's even more expensive to build homes.
Tariffs Attacking Our Vendors and Bankers
The tariffs are getting higher. Trump was out today saying he is going to put another $240 billion of tariffs on Chinese products in addition to the $200 billion we already have queued up and yesterday he was talking about going after Japan and we're the ones who have the most to lose by picking all these fights with all the countries that are supplying us the goods we need and loaning us all the money we need. We're basically attacking our vendors and our bankers and somehow think this is a good strategy.
Big Leading Indicators Say Something is Wrong
So you can't have a recession in autos and housing simultaneously and somehow the rest of the U.S. economy is impervious. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Episoder(1084)

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26 Missing expectations on all economic indicators * Chicago Fed index .14 * PMI flash services 56.3 * Dallas Fed Manufacturing 10.5 * Case Shiller Index slows down to 4.9% * Consumer Confidence number down to 88.7M * Oil prices continue to fall * Big drop in Richmond Fed 75% below estimate * Optimism fueled by debt, consumption and bubbles Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Nov 201428min

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict: Episode 25A * Riots are not the caused by the Grand Jury * The Grand Jury's statement did not address Michael Brown's culpability * All evidence points to officer's innocence * Media fears addressing Michael Brown's violent behavior * Young men are not raised to respect the law * This will happen again because there is no recourse to violence and false witness< Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Nov 201417min

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman runs premature victory lap: Episode 24A * Assumes that money-printing works because there is "no inflation" * Krugman's cure for the stock market bubble was the real estate bubble * The test is when the printing presses stop Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Nov 201417min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

Big News out of the Central Banks * U.S. FOMC * Primary concern - inflation is too low * no policy to "correct" the problem * Preparing markets for additional stimulus * Japanese Central Bank Doublespeak * Japanese sales tax hike postponed * Continued calls for more inflation * Why is sales tax is different than inflation? * Euro Decline * Mandating "stability" by increasing inflation? * Chinese Central Bank * Cut interest rate to 5.6% * Money flows to the dollar as a hedge because the market believes the Fed * Gold has not dropped much against the dollar and has risen against other currencies Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

22 Nov 201431min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

Episode 23: Going to Extreme to Prove a Point: Two articles about Peter Schiff: * MarketWatch - writer refused to address corrections before going to print except for my official title - The point of my forecasts is to help people avoid problems ahead of time - I did not call for a stock market crash; I predicted QE4 - The Fed can prevent a Dollar Crisis - I said hyperinflation is unlikely, but a possibility * New Republic - Writer quotes selectively from a Reason article to prove his own spin - Points to the CPI to refute real inflation - The price of a Big Mac mirrored the CPI until 2002 - Now price of Big Mac rises 2x as fast as CPI - This illustrates how the government measures inflation Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Nov 201427min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

Episode 22: Lessons from the Michael Brown Case: * Don't rob a convenience store. * Don't rob a convenience store while high. * Don't be conspicuous after robbing a convenience store while high. * If a policeman then stops you, obey the policeman. * Do not try to take the policeman's gun away from him. * But if you get shot in the hand going for the gun and run away, do not charge the policeman when he says, "freeze!" * The political narrative hides the real problem: unhealthy family life. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

20 Nov 201421min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 21

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 21

Episode 21: BoJ Seems to relieve Consumers' Struggle With Rising Prices by Creating More Inflation * Investors & Economists shocked to learn that Japan is officially in recession * Instead of a 2.1 rebound, there were back to back declines - a huge miss. * Economists cry "More Stimulus!" * Abe admits rising prices hurt the economy, contrary to inflation "Goal" * The theory that rising prices stimulate the economy is proving wrong in Japan, Russia and the U.S. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Nov 201426min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 20

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 20

Episode 20: Explosive Daily Upside Reversal in Gold Portends Potential Bottom * Weekly jobless claims higher than expected * Fewer people in the workforce * Job openings declining * Consumer sentiment survey at 7-year high? * false confidence in the economy due to oil prices * QE4 will be the mother of all QE * Gold and silver market reversal on Friday * Silver stocks up $4% * Gold stocks were up 6% Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Nov 201420min

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