Numbers Always Look Good When Recessions Begin – Ep.  405

Numbers Always Look Good When Recessions Begin – Ep. 405

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Look Carefully at the Price Index
The GDP number came out yesterday; 3/5% did slightly beat the consensus of 3.3%, but remember, for a while the Atlanta Fed was looking for a print in the 4's. But the New York Fed was at 2.2%, so the print was much higher than what the New York Fed was looking for. But if you look at the internals, the biggest reason that we got 3.5% was because of the price index - the "deflator". Last quarter, when we had 4.2%, the government said that prices rose at an annualized rate of 3%. But in Q3, they said that prices only rose at an annualized rate of 1.7%.
Calling B.S. on that Number
Now I call B.S. on that number. I don't think we had that significant a slowdown in the annualized rate of inflation between the second quarter of the year and the third quarter of the year. If the 3% inflation rate had held steady, then Q2 GDP would have been just 2.2%. So, obviously not nearly as good a headline as 3.5%. We'll see if they revise this thing down after the election. Obviously the Republicans can still campaign on 3.5% even if it turns out that 3.5% was an over-estimate.
Largest Trade Deficit in History
I think new data is going to come out - particularly on trade. Donald Trump is out there again bragging about how we're winning the trade war. I talked about that. That was the topic of my last podcast because we just printed the worse Merchandise Trade Deficit on a monthly basis in U.S. history.
Trade Deficit Amounted to the Largest Subtraction from GDP in 33 Years
The trade deficit was so large in the third quarter that it subtracted 1.78 percentage points from the GDP number. That is the largest subtraction from GDP that we have had from trade during a quarter in 33 years. What happens, when you calculate GDP, you take government spending, you take consumer spending and business spending and then you add in your trade surplus or you subtract out your trade deficit. Now, since we never have a trade surplus, trade is always a net subtraction from the GDP.

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Episoder(1085)

Denial Runs Deep From Wall Street To Bitcoin – Ep 43

Denial Runs Deep From Wall Street To Bitcoin – Ep 43

* Dow down 600 points in between Tuesday high and Wednesday low * Stock market and real estate are pillars of the phony recovery * Loose government lending standards encouraging mortgage defaults * Dollar down and gold up on low retail sales numbers * Fed not likely to sit out a U.S. recession, trading support for Wall Street over the dollar * The next QE could be bearish for bonds and the dollar * Demise of the recovery illusion will also hurt stocks * Bitcoins down on more bad news * Price does matter as investors seek value * Irredeemable digital currencies will never be money Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Jan 201533min

Jobs Up But Earnings and Participation Down – Ep. 42

Jobs Up But Earnings and Participation Down – Ep. 42

* December jobs report up; unemployment down * Average hourly earnings dropped * Labor force participation hits new low, except for older Americans * Fewer young workers supporting the Social Security system * Most credit comprised of student loans and auto loans * Auto delinquencies highest since 2008, indicating a bubble * Obama's plan to make community college free will further inflate costs * Charles Evans calls for more inflation before raising interest rates * Denies relationship between cheap money and bubbles * The term "patience" indicates no timeframe for higher rates * Gold stocks very strong and gold prices continue to rise in face of rising dollar Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

11 Jan 201521min

Gold Breaks Out, Stocks Break Down – Ep. 41

Gold Breaks Out, Stocks Break Down – Ep. 41

* World markets left the gates weak on first full trading week of the year * Catalysts: Declining oil prices and Greece's potential Eurozone exit * The Euro has gone sideways against the dollar for 9 years * The U.S. stock market will decline until the market believes rate hikes are off the table * U.S. will not experience accelerating growth in 2015 * Evidence shows the home market is not strengthening * Young entrepreneurship at a 20-year low * Falling oil prices are a symptom economy is not expanding Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

6 Jan 201522min

As The New Year Begins, Will The  Recovery End? – Ep. 40

As The New Year Begins, Will The Recovery End? – Ep. 40

* Falling unemployment trends seem to be over * PMI "unexpectedly" drops to 53.9% * Construction spending "unexpectedly" fell .3% * December ISM fell to 55.5 * Draghi's comments at ECB sparked U.S. Dollar rally despite weak data * Eurozone QE not likely * 2014 was a flat year for gold, despite bad press * Dollar price based on higher interest rate expectations * Price of gold has tripled since 2005 * Gold mining costs rise with inflation * The real bubble is the confidence in central bankers Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Jan 201535min

Christmas Snow Job on Wall Street – Ep. 39

Christmas Snow Job on Wall Street – Ep. 39

Christmas Snow job on Wall Street * Dow ended Christmas Eve Day above 18,000 for second day * Catalyst was bigger than expected revision to Q3 GDP to 5% * Big disconnect between economic performance and expectations * Consumer spending up mostly on healthcare * Inventory increases in expectation of future sales * Data for Q4 is lower * Home sales continue to drop Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Des 201426min

SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball – Ep. 38

SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball – Ep. 38

SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball * Negative deposit rates in Switzerland send U.S. stocks up 420 points. * Two-day Wall Street rally over 700 points on nothing but Central Bank inflation * Swiss move triggers QE speculation and higher gold prices * Janet Yellen merely suggested the economy is strong enough to raise rates in the future * Meanwhile, economy is slowest since last February Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Des 201422min

Yellen Bluffs Future Rate Hikes and Traders Pretend to Believe Her – Ep. 37

Yellen Bluffs Future Rate Hikes and Traders Pretend to Believe Her – Ep. 37

Yellen Bluffs Future Rate Hikes and Traders Pretend to Believe Her - Ep. 37 * FOMC wrapped up meeting with Yellen press conference * Most people expected "considerable time" to be dropped * Bloomberg believes "considerable" dropped in favor of "patience" * The Fed didn't change anything * The Fed didn't actually say anything * Markets up on Yellen's optimistic non-news * Why wait to raise interest rates? * The longer the Fed waits to raise rates, the more painful it will be for the economy * What is the Fed's strategy if economy slows down? Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

18 Des 201425min

You Know the Bubble’s About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice – Ep. 36

You Know the Bubble’s About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice – Ep. 36

You Know the Bubble's About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice Ep. 36 * Oil and Russia viewed to be at the epicenter of this week's market chaos * Why is the oil price dropping? The market anticipates a drop in demand due to global recession * Winding down of QE triggering market instability * Economic data still pointing to weakness * Russia raised interest rates to 17% * Ruble crisis is a "dress rehearsal" for the dollar crisis * Our currency crisis will be worse because of our debt * Euro and Yen rallying * This morning gold was up, down, ended up * Volatility indicates changing trends * A recession in the U.S. means QE4 Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Des 201424min

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