Even Jim Cramer Knows More Than the Fed – Ep. 414

Even Jim Cramer Knows More Than the Fed – Ep. 414

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Optimism Over No Tariffs Fueling Market Move
Donald Trump, I think, was the reason the markets ended up finishing in the black today, at least most of the major indexes. In fact, the only index that was down on the day was the NASDAQ - the NASDAQ was the only major index that was down on the week, thanks to weakness in tech stock, in particular, the FANG stocks. The comments that Trump made today basically gave hope to some people that potentially 25% across the board tariffs on all Chinese imports may not go into effect at the beginning of next year, which is the threat. If the Chinese ant Trump don't come to an agreement, then those tariffs are going to hit.
Tariffs Are the Stick
Apparently the tariffs are the stick that is going to be brandished by Trump, and he is going to use it to hit the Chinese over the head. But the threat of this big stick is supposedly going to bring the Chinese to the table, and there will be a deal that is favorable to the United States. Of course, if these tariffs actually go into effect, the people who are really going to be hit with the stick are going to be Americans. It's going to be American consumers who have to pay 25% more for everything they buy, and it's going to be American retailers who, of course, are going to sell a lot less stuff, because, if they have to raise prices by 25%, sales are going to collapse.
Fed Hinting that "Data Dependent" May Signal Slowdown in Rates
We had a couple of Fed guys out today -Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida - was interviewed today on CNBC by Steve Liesman - I happened to catch that interview, and was listening closely to what Clarida had to say. To me, he almost admitted that when the Fed pretended to be "data dependent" early on, they really weren't data dependent at all. They were just raising interest rates because they wanted to get them higher. They were afraid of getting caught with rates too close to zero in the beginning of the next recession, so they wanted to re-load that gun, so they wanted to get interest rates higher. They kept saying they were data dependent, but I never really thought they were. Once they started to raise rates, they were just on auto pilot. But now, Clarida seems to open the door to the possibility that maybe, some of the rate hikes that we think are coming aren't going to come, because he talked about how now, the Fed can be more data dependent than it was in the past.
Optimism Among Warning Signals
Where in the past, we talked about being data dependent, but we really weren't, but now we actually can be because now we're closer to neutral. And since we're now closer to that number we can take the data more seriously, meaning that if the data comes out weaker than we expect, well maybe we won't raise rates as much as we think. and I think Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan was also out today making similar comments that were initially taken as Dovish by the markets, because he was leaving the door open, apparently to the fact that the Fed may not deliver as many rate hikes as the markets believe. Both of these guys are extremely optimistic and upbeat about the U.S. economy. As if none of the bad news that is happening around them matter. You've got the semi-conductors, you've got the retailers, you've got the autos, you've got the home builders. All these sectors are blowing up one after another and they guys at the Fed are thinking "No Problem!"
Cramer Exceeding Very Low Bar Set By Fed
Also today, Jim Kramer, on CNBC, was out there critical of the Fed, basically saying that these guys don't know what they are talking about and that he's smarter than them, and they should pay attention to what he's saying. Kramer may in fact know more than the Fed, Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Episoder(1085)

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27 * Oil and gold stocks down * OPEC announced no decline in oil production * Crude trading below $66/barrel * Bump to the Dollar * Mining sector takes a hit * Gold down * A no vote on Swiss Gold initiative bullish for gold Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

30 Nov 201435min

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26 Missing expectations on all economic indicators * Chicago Fed index .14 * PMI flash services 56.3 * Dallas Fed Manufacturing 10.5 * Case Shiller Index slows down to 4.9% * Consumer Confidence number down to 88.7M * Oil prices continue to fall * Big drop in Richmond Fed 75% below estimate * Optimism fueled by debt, consumption and bubbles Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Nov 201428min

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict: Episode 25A * Riots are not the caused by the Grand Jury * The Grand Jury's statement did not address Michael Brown's culpability * All evidence points to officer's innocence * Media fears addressing Michael Brown's violent behavior * Young men are not raised to respect the law * This will happen again because there is no recourse to violence and false witness< Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Nov 201417min

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman runs premature victory lap: Episode 24A * Assumes that money-printing works because there is "no inflation" * Krugman's cure for the stock market bubble was the real estate bubble * The test is when the printing presses stop Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Nov 201417min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

Big News out of the Central Banks * U.S. FOMC * Primary concern - inflation is too low * no policy to "correct" the problem * Preparing markets for additional stimulus * Japanese Central Bank Doublespeak * Japanese sales tax hike postponed * Continued calls for more inflation * Why is sales tax is different than inflation? * Euro Decline * Mandating "stability" by increasing inflation? * Chinese Central Bank * Cut interest rate to 5.6% * Money flows to the dollar as a hedge because the market believes the Fed * Gold has not dropped much against the dollar and has risen against other currencies Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

22 Nov 201431min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

Episode 23: Going to Extreme to Prove a Point: Two articles about Peter Schiff: * MarketWatch - writer refused to address corrections before going to print except for my official title - The point of my forecasts is to help people avoid problems ahead of time - I did not call for a stock market crash; I predicted QE4 - The Fed can prevent a Dollar Crisis - I said hyperinflation is unlikely, but a possibility * New Republic - Writer quotes selectively from a Reason article to prove his own spin - Points to the CPI to refute real inflation - The price of a Big Mac mirrored the CPI until 2002 - Now price of Big Mac rises 2x as fast as CPI - This illustrates how the government measures inflation Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Nov 201427min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

Episode 22: Lessons from the Michael Brown Case: * Don't rob a convenience store. * Don't rob a convenience store while high. * Don't be conspicuous after robbing a convenience store while high. * If a policeman then stops you, obey the policeman. * Do not try to take the policeman's gun away from him. * But if you get shot in the hand going for the gun and run away, do not charge the policeman when he says, "freeze!" * The political narrative hides the real problem: unhealthy family life. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

20 Nov 201421min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 21

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 21

Episode 21: BoJ Seems to relieve Consumers' Struggle With Rising Prices by Creating More Inflation * Investors & Economists shocked to learn that Japan is officially in recession * Instead of a 2.1 rebound, there were back to back declines - a huge miss. * Economists cry "More Stimulus!" * Abe admits rising prices hurt the economy, contrary to inflation "Goal" * The theory that rising prices stimulate the economy is proving wrong in Japan, Russia and the U.S. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Nov 201426min

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