The Confidence Bubble Has Popped – Ep. 415

The Confidence Bubble Has Popped – Ep. 415

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FAANG's Took a Big Bite Out of the Market
Another Monday, another big down day for the U.S. stock market, it is turning out to be one hell of a quarter; not all of the declines happening in October. But as I said earlier, it doesn't have to be in October for the market to crash. Today wasn't a Black Monday; certainly the percentage decline wasn't out of the ordinary. Although the FAANG stocks, in particular, there was a big bite taken out of those stocks, and it wasn't just the bite that was taken out of the Apple, which was some of the news that precipitated today's decline. A big down day nonetheless.
NASDAQ Having one of the Worst Quarters Ever
The Dow Jones down just shy of 400 points - 395, or 1.5%. On the lows, we were down better than 500 points. The Russell 2000 closed down just over 30 points - that's a 2% point drop. But the big drop was the NASDAQ - down 219 points, just over 3%, pretty close to the lows of the day. The NASDAQ is now down 12.5% so far this quarter - probably one of the worst quarters ever.

I think the only thing that may slow down the decline is if the Fed skips the December rate hike. Although, even that may not be enough. If the Fed doesn't hike in December, the markets might get worried that the Fed knows something and that the economy is much weaker and therefore earnings will be much weaker, so, to me, i think if the market's going to get a stay of execution from the Fed, it's actually going to have to be a rate cut.
Homebuilder Sentiment Lower Than Expected
There are plenty of other data points that are coming out, both corporate news and news about the overall economy, In particular, today, that I think weighed heavily on the markets. The first one being the Homebuilder Sentiment for November. That came out at 10am. So the markets were already trading based on another piece of news which I will get to. Last month, Homebuilder Sentiment's number was at 68. Now anything above 50 is supposedly O.K. It still means they're optimistic. And the consensus was for Homebuilder Sentiment to stay at 68. Instead, it plunged all the way down to 60. In fact, the range of forecasts went from a low of 66 to a high of 69. That drop, from what I've read, that is bigger than any drop we've had during any month of the last bust that led to the 2008 Financial Crisis. We've never seen a rate of decline like this. Obviously that scared the market. This is just one of the first sentiment indicators that is giving way. Obviously, home sales are imploding so you might expect builders to be a little bit nervous about this, even though they are still somewhat optimistic. But remember, this whole rally is built on confidence and the confidence is going to start going everywhere, In addition to the Homebuilders, you're going to see business confidence, particularly small business confidence, which was at a record high.
Apple Now in a Bear Market
But there was some other particularly bad news that came in before the opening bell, and that one was from Apple. They said they will be cutting production because of lower sales. That decision trickles down, effecting a lot of companies who count on those orders from Apple. The price of Apple is down by 4% on the day. But if you now look at the total drop - just over 20% - and that means the way Wall Street scores it, Apple is now in a bear market.
Facebook Led the Market Down
Of course, not just Apple, the FAANG's in general, the market took a bite out of those guys today. Facebook leading the market down - down another 5.5% on the day. That brings the total decline for this bear market to 40%. In second place is NETFLIX, that was down 5.5%, today so pretty much neck and neck with Facebook. But since its peak, NETFLIX is down 36%. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Episoder(1085)

Yellen’s Recovery is as real as George ‘s Beach House Ep. 35

Yellen’s Recovery is as real as George ‘s Beach House Ep. 35

Yellen's Recovery is as real as George Costanza's Hamptons Beach House Ep. 35 * Volatile Friday followed by Monday rally trend * The stock market has rallied very high very fast with little technical support. * The gold market had its best week relative to equities. * Only a dozen markets have beaten gold this year. * Rally started with Michigan Consumer Sentiment assisted by Dodd/Frank revisions. * The dollar was mixed at Friday close. * The oil market is indicative of the Fed's movements. * The Fed's history predicts continued to support for bubbles with additional QE, despite reports to the contrary. * QE4 will be bigger than previous QE's and will precipitate higher oil prices. * The pretense that QE is over has fueled the market, but QE4 will trigger the bursting of multiple bubbles. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Des 201430min

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34 * If oil goes down to $35/barrel we will not be able to produce oil for export at that price. * It is no accident that oil prices are dropping as the Fed is ending QE. * What are the implications for the U.S. Economy if the Oil Bubble bursts? * Good jobs in the industry sector will go away. * Oil sector business loans will default * Investors will lose money. * The fallout will be bigger than the dot com bubble. * If oil was a bubble fueled by cheap Fed money, what's next? * If the collapsing oil prices threaten recession, the Fed may launch QE4. * If the Fed does not launch QE4, other bubbles will be affected. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Des 201419min

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33 * Catalyst for the rally was the Retail Sales Report * Cars represent the largest part of the gain * Any slight good news is overblown * Bad news is ignored * Economy is not driven by spending * Economy is driven by savings and production * Gold stable and up on the year against the dollar * Those who question the Government's numbers are being called "Truthers" Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Des 201423min

Tax Loss Selling in Bitcoin Ep. 32

Tax Loss Selling in Bitcoin Ep. 32

Tax Loss Selling in Bitcoin Ep.32 * In 2014 Bitcoin was the worst-performing financial asset * Spending bitcoins triggers a taxable event * Spending or selling at a loss also reflects on your taxes * This holiday season, harvest tax losses while shopping * Write-off could exceed value of gift * You can also buy bitcoins back at a savings from original cost if you wait 30 days * Buy Gold and Silver while harvesting tax loss Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Des 201420min

Fannie and Freddie Guarantee Bigger Losses

Fannie and Freddie Guarantee Bigger Losses

* U.S. Taxpayers will be forced to guarantee mortgages with 3% down * Qualifiers are low-income or have not owned a home for 3 years * Government is spinning this as "prudent" * Buyers have very little skin in the game * If real estate prices plummet, walking away is an easy choice Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Des 201412min

Does Market Volatility Portend a Change of Trend? Ep. 30

Does Market Volatility Portend a Change of Trend? Ep. 30

* Stock market roller coaster ride this week * Chinese market plummets * Forex markets: Yen rallies after 7-year low * The Swiss may discourage the EU against QE * Unwarranted U.S.optimism as negative data is ignored * Gold and Silver strong despite bad press * Gold outperforming the Russel 2000 * Deficit in Manufactured Goods hit all-time high * China reports record trade surplus Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Des 201420min

Draghi Said ECB Considered Buying Every Asset Except Gold: Ep. 29

Draghi Said ECB Considered Buying Every Asset Except Gold: Ep. 29

* What is the goal of the "Inflation Mandate? * What is the exact number of the mandate? * If the real mandate is "less than 2%" they're already there * The European economy is expecting another QE, but I don't expect it. * How they plan QE if they don't know what they are going to buy? * Draghi cites success of U.S. QE, but the Fed has not shrunk its balance sheet. * They discussed buying all assets except gold because this would highlight failure of QE Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Des 201425min

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28 * This holiday shoppers had more shopping hours * 5% less traffic than last year * 11% less money spent than last year * The economy can't support robust holiday sales * Despite big drop in gas prices * Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

1 Des 201424min

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