Risk. Information. Noise

Risk. Information. Noise

Did bankers understand uncertainty better before financial models?

In this episode we explore a question at the heart of finance: what is risk, really? Long before VaR models, stress tests, and algorithmic finance, bankers managed uncertainty through reputation, relationships, and social trust. Were they naïve—or were they, in some ways, more realistic than we are?

In this episode of Finance & History, Carmen Hofmann speaks with economic historian Monika Pohle Fraser about how nineteenth-century French and German bankers managed risk before modern models existed.

Drawing on archival evidence, the conversation explores a provocative idea: that trust, reputation, and social judgment often mattered more than quantitative information—and may still do today.

From universal banking and bourgeois honor to AI-driven finance, the episode asks whether modern risk management is built on better information… or simply more sophisticated fictions of certainty.

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Episoder(54)

Hitler’s Debt

Hitler’s Debt

How post-war finance remade Europe.In this episode, host Carmen Hofmann speaks with historian Tobias Straumann about his book Hitler’s Debt and the financial decisions that shaped Europe’s post-war re...

18 Nov 202541min

Histories of Finance and Politics

Histories of Finance and Politics

Hugo Bänziger (Chairman of eabh) and Manfred Pohl (founder of eabh) come together for a rare conversation between two of the most experienced banking historians. They explore key milestones in Germany...

1 Sep 202530min

Capital in Banking

Capital in Banking

Capital Matters: Banking, Risk, and HistoryIn this episode, Carmen Hofmann (eabh) speaks with Simon Amrein (Lucerne) about the role of capital in banking—past and present. They explore how banks have ...

7 Jul 202538min

Single Currency

Single Currency

In this episode of 'Finance and History', Hugo Bänziger talks to Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland, at the eabh annual conference. Together, they unpack the euro’s historic roots, from the La...

25 Jun 202535min

Capitalism, Populism, Democracy

Capitalism, Populism, Democracy

In this episode, we dive into how rising populism is reshaping capitalism and democracy. With Stefan Hofrichter (AllianzGI) Hans-Jörg Naumer (Allianz GI)—authors of Capitalism, Populism and Democracy—...

21 Mai 202539min

Canvas and Capital

Canvas and Capital

Is art a safe investment in times of war?In this episode, Kim Oosterlinck (General Director of the Royal Museums of Fine Arts of Belgium) and Carmen Hofmann (eabh) dive into the little-known yet fasci...

16 Apr 202523min

Banco do Brasil

Banco do Brasil

In this episode, Sebastian Alvarez (Universidad Adolfo Ibañez) & Carmen Hofmann (eabh) explore the powerful role of the Brazilian state in shaping the country’s financial system—focusing on the fascin...

16 Apr 202544min

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