The Official Red Chip Poker Podcast28 Apr

Surviving The Variance Of Live Poker · S8E9

The element of luck in #poker means that weak players can having winning sessions and strong ones can go on extended downswings. One can argue that this variance is necessary for the game to survive at all, since without it donators would quickly drop the game.

Appreciating how extreme poker variance can be is important for two reasons. First, understanding that downswings are a feature of the game helps us survive psychologically. Second, quantifying how big downswings can be is essential for exercising proper bankroll management.

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Introduction: Live Poker Variance & Win Rates
0:30 Can You Win 12 Months Straight?
1:25 The Sample Size Problem in Live Poker
2:32 Why Live Win-Rates Are Over-Reported
4:03 Small-Stakes Win-Rate Estimates (1/2 & 1/3)
6:03 High-Stakes Reality Check (10/20+)
7:07 Three Win-Rate Scenarios: 40bb, 20bb, 6bb/100
8:44 Understanding Standard Deviation
9:30 40bb/100 Winner: Monthly Variance Analysis
12:42 20bb/100 Winner: Expect Breakeven Months
14:38 6bb/100 Winner: The Harsh Reality
16:34 Key Takeaways & Bankroll Management
20:29 Final Thoughts on Life Roll & BRM

Episoder(304)

Befuddling Your Opponents With Micro Bets · S8E16

Do you tend to use a limited number of bet sizes in your strategy? Such simplified approaches have value, but many #poker players are missing out on profitable spots by restricting their sizing. This ...

4 Aug 25min

The Fundamentals Of Heads-Up Hold'em · S8E15

Many #poker players regard heads-up play as the purest form of the game. You are locked in a duel of wits with a single opponent, constantly trying to outmaneuver them and countering their tactical ad...

21 Jul 30min

Poker As A Business: Managing Time And Costs · S8E14

If you play #poker to make money, you have more to manage than your bankroll. To get better at the game, you need to study. That takes time and money. Serious students of the game require poker softwa...

7 Jul 29min

Grinding Poker In A Rec-Friendly Environment · S8E13

Online #poker is a very different beast to twenty years ago. Essentially all poker sites have taken the decision to clip the wings of the professional grinder, ostensibly to encourage the survival of ...

23 Jun 28min

Realistic Expectations For Your Poker Decisions · S8E12

Any #poker session you play can be thought of as a series of decisions. The "correct" decision in any spot, such as whether to bet and how much, in principle has an objectively-correct answer. This ha...

9 Jun 22min

Poker Tips From LLMs: How Bad Are They? · S8E11

An increasing number of people rely on ChatGPT summaries to explain complex topics. Is this a good idea if you're looking for tactical and strategic information about #poker? This fun episode of the p...

26 Mai 26min

Live Poker Tells: Reading Your Opponents · S8E10

Hollywood promotes the notion that top players "read" their opponents from their body language, or their unique method of eating Oreo cookies. But do such live tells have any place in today's mathemat...

12 Mai 26min