The Official Red Chip Poker Podcast28 Apr

Surviving The Variance Of Live Poker · S8E9

The element of luck in #poker means that weak players can having winning sessions and strong ones can go on extended downswings. One can argue that this variance is necessary for the game to survive at all, since without it donators would quickly drop the game.

Appreciating how extreme poker variance can be is important for two reasons. First, understanding that downswings are a feature of the game helps us survive psychologically. Second, quantifying how big downswings can be is essential for exercising proper bankroll management.

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Introduction: Live Poker Variance & Win Rates
0:30 Can You Win 12 Months Straight?
1:25 The Sample Size Problem in Live Poker
2:32 Why Live Win-Rates Are Over-Reported
4:03 Small-Stakes Win-Rate Estimates (1/2 & 1/3)
6:03 High-Stakes Reality Check (10/20+)
7:07 Three Win-Rate Scenarios: 40bb, 20bb, 6bb/100
8:44 Understanding Standard Deviation
9:30 40bb/100 Winner: Monthly Variance Analysis
12:42 20bb/100 Winner: Expect Breakeven Months
14:38 6bb/100 Winner: The Harsh Reality
16:34 Key Takeaways & Bankroll Management
20:29 Final Thoughts on Life Roll & BRM

Episoder(301)

Grinding Poker In A Rec-Friendly Environment · S8E13

Online #poker is a very different beast to twenty years ago. Essentially all poker sites have taken the decision to clip the wings of the professional grinder, ostensibly to encourage the survival of ...

23 Jun 28min

Realistic Expectations For Your Poker Decisions · S8E12

Any #poker session you play can be thought of as a series of decisions. The "correct" decision in any spot, such as whether to bet and how much, in principle has an objectively-correct answer. This ha...

9 Jun 22min

Poker Tips From LLMs: How Bad Are They? · S8E11

An increasing number of people rely on ChatGPT summaries to explain complex topics. Is this a good idea if you're looking for tactical and strategic information about #poker? This fun episode of the p...

26 Mai 26min

Live Poker Tells: Reading Your Opponents · S8E10

Hollywood promotes the notion that top players "read" their opponents from their body language, or their unique method of eating Oreo cookies. But do such live tells have any place in today's mathemat...

12 Mai 26min

Does The Block Bet Have A Place In Modern Poker? · S8E8

The block bet is a play from the pre-solver era of #poker which many players view with suspicion. Making a small bet in the hope of avoiding a much larger one from an opponent certainly lacks a firm t...

14 Apr 19min

Ranging Analysis: When It Is And Is Not Useful · S8E7

Much of modern #poker strategy revolves around the battle between poker ranges; our own and that of our opponent. But is ranging always the best approach to reaching a decision, particularly since our...

31 Mar 21min

Resilience and Optimization: Winning Poker's Mental Game · S8E6

Do you equate the mental game of #poker with tilt avoidance? Then this episode of the podcast will be a huge eye-opener. Sure mental resilience is a critical part of playing winning poker, but there a...

17 Mar 24min