AMD vs. Intel Data Center Market Share in 2026 — Plus Lattice Semiconductor Is Quietly Back at Record Revenues

Intel stock is up big over the last year. On the stock price, CSI was wrong — and they are saying so directly.

On the business analysis, they are standing firm.

AMD is steadily taking data center CPU market share from Intel. The driver is availability — both companies rely on TSMC for their most advanced chiplets, but AMD has used that availability more effectively in a CPU shortage environment where demand is outpacing supply. After AMD's most recent earnings, the trajectory is clear: if things continue, AMD could pass Intel in data center and AI revenue as early as late 2026 or sometime in 2027.

Intel's client segment — the portion of the business keeping the lights on — continues to face market share pressure from AMD. The turnaround story is real and the early innings are genuinely encouraging. But Intel at 104x forward earnings needs everything to go right, and a lot still needs to go right. AMD at 48x, with cleaner data center momentum and a more consistent growth trajectory, remains the cleaner pick — even after being wrong on Intel's stock price.

This episode also covers two important supporting stories. Lattice Semiconductor is quietly back — up 42% in its most recent quarter, with record revenues possible as early as Q2 2026, and an AMI software acquisition adding roughly $1 billion in annualized revenue by year end. And AMD's embedded FPGA segment, inherited from the Xilinx acquisition, remains a highly profitable cushion even through its current growth trough.

The close leaves listeners with one more thing to watch: the Vera CPU, coming later in 2026.

What we cover:

— Why CSI was wrong on Intel's stock price — and why the business analysis still holds

— AMD vs. Intel data center CPU market share — the trajectory and what drives it

— The CPU shortage and AMD's TSMC availability advantage

— Intel client segment — profitable, but losing ground quarter by quarter

— Intel at 104x forward P/E vs. AMD at 48x — what each multiple actually implies

— Lattice Semiconductor: +42% quarterly, record revenues in sight for Q2 2026

— Lattice AMI acquisition — $1B annualized revenue run rate by year end

— AMD Embedded (Xilinx): profitable through the trough, modest growth returning

— Intel Altera FPGA — now 51% private equity, no longer in the income statement

— The Vera CPU — a teaser worth watching as 2026 develops

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Disclosure: Nick and Kasey hold positions in AMD. They do not currently hold Intel. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

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