Betting on Disaster

Huge sums are being wagered on current events, from the weather to world wars, with fortunes being made - and lost. Mike Wendling investigates the rise of prediction markets.

While gambling is a long-standing, if somewhat morally dubious, British pastime, there's a new crop of American companies which are supercharging the industry.

They're called prediction markets.

Who will win the World Cup? Will a celebrity show up on the red carpet? What words will a crypto CEO mention in their quarterly earnings call? Will the leader of Venezuela be toppled, and will famine be declared in Gaza? Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to bet on almost any question imaginable.

Prediction market entrepreneurs say their platforms are information discovery engines where users put their money where their mouth is, providing valuable information and clues to the future that they say are more accurate than experts, media or polls.

But the industry has been rocked by insider trading scandals and manipulative behaviour by some traders, and critics worry that as demand for these platforms rise, so too does the risk that they could end up shaping reality, rather than merely reflecting it.

For Currently, Mike Wendling speaks to industry insiders, traders, and experts to glean the future of the prediction market industry.

Producer: Mhairi MacKenzie Audio engineer: James Beard Editor: Richard Fenton-Smith

Credits: Kalshi advert (Kalshi) Shayne Coplan speaking at 2026 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (MIT Sloan). The Odds: Predictions for the 2028 White House (CNN) @Locksy/X Coinbase Q3 2025 Quarterly Earnings Call (Coinbase) Bet The House Podcast (Bet the House)

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