Hormuz Oil Shock, Airfares and the Future of Flying - IATA’s Chief Economist on the New Energy Crisis

Episode 88: Hormuz Oil Shock, Airfares and the Future of Flying - IATA’s Chief Economist on the New Energy Crisis

Oil shocks used to feel like something that happened in markets, headlines and awkward economist panels. Not anymore.

In this episode of Trade Splaining, we look at how the latest energy shock is moving from oil markets into the parts of the economy people actually feel - airfares, airline schedules, fuel tanks, EV demand, government energy policy and, potentially, your next holiday. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is no longer just a geopolitics story. It is becoming a consumer story, a transport story and a very expensive reminder that energy security still runs through some very narrow places.

This week, Marie Owens Thomsen, Chief Economist at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), joins the show to explain why aviation is facing what she calls a double energy crisis: an oil crisis and a refining crisis. Airlines do not fly on crude oil - they fly on jet fuel. And when jet fuel prices rise sharply, airlines face immediate pressure on costs, routes, pricing and survival.

Marie breaks down why sustainable aviation fuel is not as simple as “just make greener jet fuel,” why refineries are far more interconnected than most people realise, and why the future of flying depends on much bigger questions around energy systems, investment, infrastructure and political timelines. In other words: aviation may be only a small slice of refined fuel output, but when the system starts creaking, everyone notices.

Also in this episode: Trump and Xi apparently make trade nice again - details pending, napkins possibly missing - Europe’s airlines brace for higher costs, EVs get a crisis-driven boost, Swatch and Audemars Piguet release expensive pendant-shaped plastic, Switzerland accidentally gets a king, and Italy battles the real menace of our time: marauding peacocks.

In this episode:

• How the Hormuz crisis is feeding into fuel prices, airline costs and travel disruption
• Why jet fuel is not the same thing as crude oil - and why that matters
• How higher fuel prices could affect airfares, routes and airline profitability
• Why Europe may be especially exposed to aviation fuel shocks
• Marie Owens Thomsen on IATA, sustainability and the future of air transport
• Why sustainable aviation fuel requires a whole energy-system rethink
• How refinery economics shape the future of aviation
• Whether this crisis could accelerate renewable energy and alternative fuels
• The strange incentives now facing governments, airlines and consumers
• Switzerland’s self-declared king and Italy’s peacock problem

Featured guest

Marie Owens Thomsen is Chief Economist at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), where she is also responsible for environmental and sustainability activities and serves on IATA’s Management Committee. She previously worked at Lombard Odier as Head of Global Trends and Sustainability and has held senior roles across investment banking, private banking and international economics.

Keywords

Trade Splaining, IATA, Marie Owens Thomsen, aviation, airfares, jet fuel, oil shock, Strait of Hormuz, energy crisis, sustainable aviation fuel, SAF, airline industry, global trade, energy security, transport, geopolitics, supply chains, renewable energy, refining crisis, airlines, EV demand, global economy.