Better Weather Forecasts, Growing Uncertainty

Weather forecasting has never been more advanced. Yet many scientists say Earth’s atmosphere and oceans may be becoming more interconnected, nonlinear, and difficult to fully model.

In this episode of Meteorology Matters, meteorologist Rob Jones explores the growing “tug of war” unfolding across global weather and ocean systems — from warming oceans and aerosol cleanup to low cloud feedbacks, El Niño (“el NEEN-yo”), rapid intensification, and long-term sea level rise.

Topics include: • Why reducing air pollution may unintentionally accelerate warming in some regions • The surprising role aerosols and cloud reflectivity play in Earth’s temperature balance • Concerns surrounding weakening ocean circulation patterns like the AMOC • Why some recent temperature spikes are difficult for current forecast models to fully explain • New research suggesting sea levels may continue rising for centuries beyond 2300 • NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season • Why a “below-normal” hurricane season does not mean low risk • The growing challenge of rapid intensification forecasting

The conversation also explores broader questions surrounding environmental policy, forecasting uncertainty, and whether current Earth-system models are fully equipped to capture the complexity of the future.

Forecasting is improving. But the atmosphere and oceans may also be evolving in ways that are becoming harder to simplify.

You’ve been listening to Meteorology Matters, created by meteorologist Rob Jones.