The Bond Market Is the Boss Now: Bits + Bips

Kevin Warsh wants a smaller Fed balance sheet and fewer dot plots. Noelle Acheson says the bond market won't let him have either. Here's what she expects instead. --- Heads up! If you haven’t yet, be sure to subscribe to Bits + Bips, since the show will migrate there in a few weeks. Follow us on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Apple Podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Unchained⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and wherever you get your podcasts. ---- Bond yields are climbing globally while stock markets push higher on AI optimism — and Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter, argues the divergence is not a contradiction but a warning. In her read, inflation was building before the Hormuz crisis, the BLISS trade has permanently replaced the TACO trade as the structural put under markets, and Kevin Warsh is walking into a Fed that the bond market controls more than he does. She also flags a contrarian indicator nobody is talking about: the gap between the cap-weighted S&P 500 and the equal-weight index is widening at a pace last seen in 1999. Host: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Steve Ehrlich, Head of Research at SharpLink and Host of Bits + Bips: The Interview - https://x.com/Steven_Ehrlich Guest: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Noelle Acheson | Author, Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter Timestamps 📈 00:02:00 — Why the bond market is flashing fear while stocks party on 📊 00:04:30 — The inflation signals nobody's watching, and why Hormuz relief won't save us 💬 00:09:00 — The "BLISS trade" explained, and which market breaks first 🤖 00:12:30 — The AI stock bubble question Wall Street refuses to ask 🏛️ 00:19:00 — The Fed chair's real legacy: independence hero or inflation villain? 🔑 00:24:30 — What the incoming Fed chair actually can and can't do 📉 00:27:30 — The hawkish FOMC split the official vote tried to hide ₿ 00:31:00 — Bitcoin's identity crisis: debasement hedge or just high-beta risk? ⚖️ 00:34:00 — Will the CLARITY Act pass, and does crypto even need it anymore? 🔬 00:38:30 — The tokenization loophole that could break how markets work Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices