Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)17 Jul 2025

Stacking the odds: Cate Hall on agency and outlier success

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Cate Hall, CEO of Astera Institute and author of a forthcoming book on agency, to explore how individuals can systematically develop higher agency in their lives. They discuss the selection effects that draw agentic people to fields like poker and startups, the importance of being comfortable with ignorance and feedback, and practical strategies like asking "Is there a better way to do this?" ten times daily. Cate shares insights from her journey from Supreme Court lawyer to world champion poker player, including how peer groups, emergencies, and what addicts call "the gift of desperation" can trigger step-changes in personal agency.
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Full transcript available here:
https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/stacking-the-odds-cate-hall/

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[Patrick notes: Complex Systems now produces occasional video episodes like this one.You can access them directly on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast. My kids inform me that I’m supposed to tell you to like and subscribe.]

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Links:

Cate Hall’s Writing: https://usefulfictions.substack.com/
Pre-order Cate's book on agency: https://mailchi.mp/44578760e686/book-preorder-signup
Astera: https://astera.org/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:28) Exploring the concept of agency

(00:56) Selection effects in different fields

(01:31) The tech industry evolution

(02:54) Y Combinator's changing demographics

(04:23) Parallels between poker and startups

(15:48) The role of networking and relationships

(19:12) Embracing feedback and continuous improvement

(23:49) Exploring growth mindset

(24:35) AI and personal improvement

(27:04) Learning with AI: strategies and cautions

(27:53) The value of human interaction

(30:19) Professional gamblers and their unique insights

(35:05) Understanding agency and its development

(38:45) Triggers for increased agency

(45:23) Wrap

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