Window of Opportunity? Deterrence and Moscow’s Calculus

In the last episode of Brussels Sprouts, we looked at the dizzying series of U.S. announcements about America’s military posture in Europe. Since then, new reporting has emerged. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon is preparing allies for a much larger reduction in the U.S. forces earmarked to reinforce Europe in a crisis—including reductions in bombers, naval assets, and refueling tinkers. In other words, this is not just about troop numbers on the continent today. It’s about whether the United States will still provide the critical enablers that have long underpinned NATO’s ability to deter and, if necessary, fight a major war in Europe. Moscow is watching all of this closely, and the timing matters. As Washington signals that it intends to do less, Russia is increasing pressure on NATO’s eastern flank.

In recent weeks, Moscow has threatened Latvia over false claims that it is allowing Ukraine to use its territory or airspace to launch drone attacks against Russia. Baltic officials have rejected those claims, but the pattern is familiar: Manufacture a grievance, amplify it, and use it to build the foundation to justify future aggression. At the same time, Russia is facing growing domestic strain, which we’ve talked about here on Brussels Sprouts as well, raising questions about whether Putin needs a permanent state of confrontation with the West to sustain his hold on power. So, with all of this, today we are asking a central question: Does Russia see opportunity in this moment, one in which the United States may be pulling back faster than Europe can fill the gap?

To help us understand the view from Moscow, we’re very pleased to welcome back to Brussels Sprouts a series of former intelligence officials: Nate Reynolds, Pete Schroeder, and Jeff Edmonds.

• Peter Schroeder is an expert on Russian foreign and security policy with nearly two decades of experience working on Russia and Eurasia in various roles in the intelligence community. He is an adjunct fellow with the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).
• Nate Reynolds is a senior fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and also a longtime intelligence official.
• Jeff Edmonds is the president of True North Policy, an adjunct fellow with CNAS, and also a very longtime intelligence veteran.