Crude Elevated On War Premium

Wednesday, June 10, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI trading $88.20-$89.34 range, high near $90, low near $88.28. Earlier in week spiked to $95.47 on Iran tensions, retraced $4+ as tensions eased. YTD gains ~55-58%. Futures curve backwardation amid supply concerns. Geopolitical volatility dominant driver. Setup: Crude range-bound, waiting for Strait clarity. If negotiations succeed and Strait reopens, crude crashes. If talks fail and conflict escalates, crude spikes. Market pricing stalemate with occasional flare-ups. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub spot June 1 $3.07/MMBtu. Futures NGN26 ~$3.183. May 2026 average $2.94/MMBtu. EIA STEO: $3.50/MMBtu full-year 2026 average. STORAGE: Week ending May 29 (released June 4): 2,578 Bcf working gas, +95 Bcf net injection. 3 Bcf below year-ago, 138 Bcf (6%) above 5-year average. Next report June 11. Setup: Gas holding accumulation range. Storage ample, production strong, seasonal factors neutral. Waiting for weather shock or LNG demand spike. GEOPOLITICAL: US Army helicopter crashed near Strait June 9, pilots stable/uninjured. Trump blamed Iran, US conducted proportional retaliatory strikes. Trump maintains deal close, Strait could reopen shortly after signing. Negotiations in final throes, possible deal in 2-3 days. Sticking points: Iran's nuclear enrichment (US demands long-term suspension, HEU dilution, site dismantling, snap inspections). Iran resisting. BOTTOM LINE: Crude elevated on war premium. Gas decoupled. Negotiations fluid. Helicopter incident adds volatility but Trump optimistic. If Strait reopens, crude crashes. If talks fail, crude spikes. Trade the data, not the headlines.

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Episoder(259)

Geopolitical Premium Persists

Wednesday, September 9, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading near $93-$94/bbl testing $95 resistance. Sep 8 close Oct 2026 contract $93.50-$93.62 (+1.1-2.3% day), intraday highs $94.73, spot $92.36-$93...

9 Sep 2min

Technicals: Week 36

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8 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Costa Rica

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4 Sep 2min

Geographic Feature: Yemen

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3 Sep 2min

Middle East Tensions

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2 Sep 2min

Technicals: Week 35

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1 Sep 2min

Strategic Positioning: Week 35

Monday, August 31, 2026. WEEK 35 OPENS. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: August 28, 2026 $83.40 (open ~$83.67, high ~$83.78, low ~$82.25; volume ~142K). August 29, 2026 No trading data available (weekend/non-trading...

31 Aug 2min

Geographic Feature: Oman

Friday, August 28, 2026. OMAN ENERGY PROFILE: Oman's oil and natural gas production showed notable growth in first half of 2026, driven by higher output, stable exports, and project developments. OIL ...

28 Aug 2min