Week 25 Opens: Deal Imminent, Crude Crashes

Monday, June 15, 2026. WEEK 25 OPENS. The deal is done or nearly done. Strait of Hormuz about to reopen. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures $80.07-$80.77, down 4.8-5.7% on day. Intraday range $80.00-$82.42. Previous close ~$84.88. Earlier in week: $92-$93 (Jun 11), $86-$87 (Jun 12). CATALYST: Geopolitical risk premium evaporating. US and Iran close to finalizing MOU. Both sides agreed on text. Signing could happen in coming days. DEAL TERMS: Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, no tolls on passage, prewar shipping levels restored within ~30 days. US naval blockade on Iranian ports lifted. Some sanctions waivers allowing Iran to sell oil freely during initial period. 60-day ceasefire extension framework. Nuclear issues deferred to follow-up negotiations. IMPLICATION: Crude crashing because war premium gone. Supply disruption risk that drove prices to $95 evaporating. Thesis was right—geopolitical spikes fade, mean reversion kicks in. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub spot (Jun 8) $3.10/MMBtu. July futures ~$3.14/MMBtu. August futures ~$3.18/MMBtu. Storage (week ending Jun 5): 2,686 Bcf, +108 Bcf injection. 5 Bcf below year-ago, 151 Bcf (+6%) above 5-year average. Next storage report: Jun 18. SETUP: Gas holding accumulation range. Storage ample. Injections strong. No weather shock yet. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Crude—fade trade on. Strait reopens, supply flows, prices crash toward $70-$75 range. Short any bounces above $82. Gas—accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. BOTTOM LINE: Week 25 opens with crude collapsing on deal news. War premium gone. Mean reversion accelerates. Gas decoupled and holding. Accumulation thesis intact. Trade the data, not the headlines.

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Episoder(257)

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